Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIEMIP)
Warming-Induced Emissions (WIE), including methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide released from thawing permafrost, warming wetlands, fires, and other climate-sensitive natural systems, are increasingly contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions amplify climate change beyond current projections, yet remain poorly quantified. WIE are largely excluded from climate models, carbon budgets, and policy frameworks, creating a critical blind spot in global mitigation, adaptation, and greenhouse gas removal strategies.
The Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIEMIP) is a funded coordinated international scientific effort to improve projections of warming-induced emissions and fast-tracked to ensure they are reflected in major climate assessment and policy processes, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) and the next Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. By integrating these emissions into modeling frameworks and overshoot pathways, WIEMIP aims to provide a more complete and policy-relevant picture of the global carbon budget and the level of ambition required for mitigation and removals.
Specifically, WIEMIP seeks to:
- Develop updated climate overshoot pathways that explicitly quantify warming-induced emissions across key Earth system components, including permafrost, wetlands, tropical forests, fire, agriculture, and coastal and marine systems.
- Support and align the inclusion of WIE across land-surface and Earth system models.
- Coordinate intercomparison activities among modeling groups to diagnose differences, refine methods, and improve confidence in projections.
- Publish results and release datasets in time to inform IPCC AR7, with data made openly and rapidly available to support broader scientific use.
- Engage with policy-relevant processes to ensure findings are usable in climate planning and decision-making.
The workshop will feature modeling group presentations and structured data report-outs, cross-model analysis and comparison sessions, dedicated time for synthesis, protocol refinement, and collaborative writing. Expected outcomes include alignment on data outputs, resolution of key scientific or technical challenges, progress toward coordinated publications, and clear next steps to ensure WIE-MIP remains on track for the IPCC AR7 timeline.
Workshop Agenda
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8:45 am Participant Intros
9:30 am Session 1. Contextualizing WIEMIP within CMIP, IPCC and WCRP activities Moderated by Juliette Bernard
9:40 am Climate Overshoot Overview and IPCC AR7 Working Group I research priorities Presented by Kirsten Zickfeld
9:45 am Use of WIEMIP to reconcile models and inventories within IPCC WGIII Presented by Giacomo Grassi
9:50 am The PRIME workflow as foundation for WIEMIP
10:00 am Questions and Discussion Moderated by Juliette Bernard
10:30 am Breakout Session – Discuss the WIEMIP protocol (from inputs, model setup, outputs, analysis): what’s working well, what are blockers, what needs do people have (compute, storage, time, etc.)? Moderated by Juliette Bernard
11:00 am Report back in plenary
12:30 pm Session 2. 1PCTCO2 and TCRE Moderated by Ben Poulter
12:30 pm C4MIP history and key lessons learned, role in CMIP7 Presented by Vivek Arora
12:45 pm Hybrid modeling and carbon-climate feedbacks (CARDAMOM) Presented by Eren Bilir
1:00 pm Questions and Discussion Moderated by Ben Poulter
2:05 pm Role of nitrogen on land carbon feedbacks (DLEM)
2:25 pm Questions and Discussion Moderated by Ben Poulter
3:00 pm Plenary Discussion – Updating TCRE beta gamma and biogeochemical feedbacks Moderated by Chris Jones
8:00 am Reflections on Day 1 Presented by Ben Poulter
8:10 am Session 3. Remaining Carbon Budget and non-CO2 gases Moderated by Will Wieder
8:26 am Global nitrous oxide emissions: Implications for the Remaining Carbon Budget (RCB) Presented by Hanqin Tian
8:42 am Questions and Discussion Moderated by Will Wieder
9:26 am Moderated panel discussion on the use of Global Warming Potentials and climate emulation models – what decisions need to be made and what are the impacts of these decisions on remaining carbon budget? Moderated by Will Wieder
10:00 am Session 4. Benchmarking and Future Needs Moderated by Tom Colligan
10:08 am Evaluating fire performance in land surface models Presented by Laura Eifler
10:40 am Questions and Discussion Moderated by Tom Colligan
11:10 am JupyterHub demo Presented by Tom Colligan
11:30 am Authorship Discussion Moderated by Tom Colligan
1:30 pm Session 5. Overshoot Scenarios
1:30 pm Evaluation framework for Earth system response to climate overshoot Presented by Kirsten Zickfeld
1:40 pm Climate emulator (FaIR) responses to overshoot, lags and recovery Presented by Daniel Hooke
2:10 pm Questions and Discussion
2:40 pm Breakout Groups – Framework for characterizing system responses to climate overshoot (e.g., fire, permafrost, vegetation dynamics, wetlands) dynamics (peak, duration, stabilization level), what is unique, generalizable Presented by Emily Jack-Scott
2:50 pm Report back in plenary
8:00 am Reflections on Day 2 Presented by Will Wieder
8:10 am Session 6. Priority Papers and Outputs Moderated by Ben Poulter
8:10 am Synergistic Activities: Updates and Calls to Engagement
8:30 am Paper Idea Pitches – In one slide: What is the objective of the publication? What data do you need for the publication? What are the proposed analyses? What are expected outcomes?
8:50 am Questions and Discussion Moderated by Ben Poulter
9:10 am Output “upgrades” and upvoting; prioritization for working groups
10:10 am Working Groups – Priority Papers and Outputs
10:10 am Session 7. Synthesis Moderated by Juliette Bernard, Tom Colligan, Ben Poulter, Will Wieder
11:00 am Report back in plenary
12:00 pm Working Lunch
1:30 pm Working Groups – Priority Papers and Outputs
2:30 pm Report back in plenary
3:30 pm Discussions and synthesis in plenary
4:15 pm Closing Remarks on Next Steps
Organizers
Attendees
The attendee list and participant profiles are regularly updated. For information on participant affiliation at the time of workshop, please refer to the historical roster. If you are aware of updates needed to participant or workshop records, please notify AGCI’s workshops team.