Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIE-MIP)

Warming-Induced Emissions (WIE), including methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide released from thawing permafrost, warming wetlands, fires, and other climate-sensitive natural systems, are increasingly contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions amplify climate change beyond current projections, yet remain poorly quantified. WIE are largely excluded from climate models, carbon budgets, and policy frameworks, creating a critical blind spot in global mitigation, adaptation, and greenhouse gas removal strategies.

The Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIE-MIP) is a funded coordinated international scientific effort to improve projections of warming-induced emissions and fast-tracked to ensure they are reflected in major climate assessment and policy processes, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) and the next Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. By integrating these emissions into modeling frameworks and overshoot pathways, WIE-MIP aims to provide a more complete and policy-relevant picture of the global carbon budget and the level of ambition required for mitigation and removals.

Specifically, WIE-MIP seeks to:

• Develop updated climate overshoot pathways that explicitly quantify warming-induced emissions across key Earth system components, including permafrost, wetlands, tropical forests, fire, agriculture, and coastal and marine systems.
• Support and align the inclusion of WIE across land-surface and Earth system models.
• Coordinate intercomparison activities among modeling groups to diagnose differences, refine methods, and improve confidence in projections.
• Publish results and release datasets in time to inform IPCC AR7, with data made openly and rapidly available to support broader scientific use.
• Engage with policy-relevant processes to ensure findings are usable in climate planning and decision-making.

The workshop will feature modeling group presentations and structured data report-outs, cross-model analysis and comparison sessions, dedicated time for synthesis, protocol refinement, and collaborative writing. Expected outcomes include alignment on data outputs, resolution of key scientific or technical challenges, progress toward coordinated publications, and clear next steps to ensure WIE-MIP remains on track for the IPCC AR7 timeline.