Resources

How do scientists explore possible climate futures, and how can that information help society make better decisions today? In this talk, David Lawrence, Senior Scientist and Chief Scientist of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at NCAR, will introduce the powerful computer models used to simulate Earth's climate system and explain how simulations with these models help inform climate-related decisions made by public and private stakeholders. The presentation will highlight how Earth System models help us understand the risks of climate change and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. This includes understanding how, where, and when forests and soils can or cannot be part of the climate solution. Join us for an accessible look at how climate modeling helps us better understand-and shape-Earth's future.

As a nation we continue to build, and rebuild, housing and infrastructure in hazardous places, and even headline-grabbing disasters don't necessarily lead to better decision-making. Despite an ever-growing library of tools aimed at promoting disaster resilience, insights and resources have not translated to better land-use decisions in many communities. In this presentation, Rumbach unpacks the seeming paradox between an increasing awareness of climate threats and the continuation of high-risk development practices. He explores theories and evidence on why communities don't make better decisions before, and after, disasters, and point to opportunities to improve outcomes through better research and policymaking.

Read the paper here

This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on March 26th, 2026; doi:10.1126/science.aef0459.  The final published version can be found here.