Understanding Decision Support for a Changing Climate
Climate change is already affecting every region of the United States, and additional impacts are expected to intensify. These changes motivate bold new decisions and actions. For instance, a sea level rise planner initiates a community conversation about the possibility of retreat; an energy utility explores new risks from drought and wildfire; a transportation planner incorporates future precipitation extremes in highway designs; and a public health officer establishes cooling centers to better protect populations vulnerable to extreme heat.
These are but a few of the multiplying examples of climate change decisions and actions already taking place. In each, climate information has the potential to be one of many types of resources used to support effective responses to climate change. However, improving the many ways climate information can support decisions requires careful attention to both how climate information is produced and translated and the many factors that influence how decisions and actions are pursued in practice across many different decision-making contexts.
Project Overview
In 2022, AGCI embarked on a series of research and engagement activities to better understand how climate information is accessed and used in a variety of sectors in the United States and to identify insights and recommendations about how it can be improved. To that end, we interviewed and surveyed more than 400 coastal managers, heat practitioners, transportation planners, and other practitioners who rely on climate information to inform and support the decisions and actions their work entails.
The goal of our research was to characterize the burgeoning and dynamic landscape of climate information supply and demand, in order to:
- Understand where and how climate information is currently provided for decision-making
- Understand where and how climate information is currently used to support decisions, and what additional needs exist
- Identify opportunities for improving the (infra)structures that provide climate decision support.
Our overall recommendations and conclusions synthesize insights from our research across sectors and institutional settings. We draw on both literature and lived experience to consider how decision support and climate services can be further refined to ensure resources are well spent and improve future climate adaptation and community resilience efforts. Our cross-sector recommendations emphasize the following: Build on what we know (see section 3.1 in the report), Improve access and appropriate use (3.2), Champion the people doing the work (3.3), and Be transformational (3.4).
We highlight our investigations and research framework below. To learn more, download the full Decision Support for a Changing Climate report.
Investigations
Successful support of decision-making in a changing climate results from understanding how practitioners and decision-makers use and access climate information, as well as the many other factors (e.g., human resources, financial, political, and legal limitations) that influence their decision-making context. To explore this, we initiated a set of investigations of specific instances where decision-making is (or could be) informed by climate information. We also investigated how climate information is conveyed through online resources and portals.
Across these investigations, we employed a mixed-methods approach (interviews, surveys, and document analysis). We engaged participants from across the United States with additional attention to finding and engaging those that have traditionally not had the resources or capacity to participate fully in adaptation planning and implementation.
This has provided a more holistic understanding of what practitioners are seeking to help them adapt to climate change. Many investigations are complete, some are still in process; click the links below to learn more about each.
Decision Support Framework
To ensure a complete picture of how climate information may support decision-making, we developed a framework for distinguishing between stages of climate change decision-making and recognizing different ways climate information can meaningfully benefit those stages (and society, in general). For this project, we refer to decision-making and action stages identified by the Water Utility Climate Alliance:
- Engage
- Understand
- Plan
- Implement
- Sustain
These stages correlate to many other decision support and adaptive management frameworks presented in the National Climate Assessment and elsewhere.
To capture the different avenues by which climate information may have an impact, we build upon a research impact framework developed by Meadow and Owen, to specify five types of impact:
- Building awareness
- Enhancing capacity
- Strengthening connections
- Taking action
- Providing more equitable support
When viewed in interaction with each other, these sets of decision-making stages and impact categories offer an expansive way to consider the many ways climate information might support decision-making and action. For instance, as shown in the figure below, sharing sea level rise (SLR) projections at a city planning meeting may build awareness among elected officials and improve their capacity to make sense of climate information, but they may not in that context inform direct action since implementation stages have not yet begun.
The Climate Services Landscape
Our investigations show climate services as a web of many and varied interconnected activities and actors involved in producing information, providing coordination, and pursuing continuous learning and innovation (see figure below). At the center of this web is decision support, which at its core involves interactive processes that help decision-makers understand and evaluate the range and implications of choices they can make in response to climate change. This web need not exist as a single, centralized climate services entity — in fact, the strength of the effort can come from the distributed and diverse nature of the work, so long as there is adequate coordination and connectivity across the entire landscape.
Project Team
Acknowledgments
This work is only possible because of the contributions of more than 400 participants, including coastal managers, heat practitioners, transportation planners, and many others who generously contributed their time and expertise to this effort. Their insights, shared through interviews and surveys, have been invaluable in deepening our understanding of these topics, and their willingness to share experiences and perspectives has both enriched this research and highlighted the collaborative spirit necessary to address the complex challenges posed by a changing climate. We are also deeply appreciative of our partners (many of whom co-authored individual investigations), who provided advice and helped conduct the research itself, and a great many others who took part in workshops, AGU sessions, and other events to advance knowledge in this critical area.
Funder
This effort has been made possible through funding by the NASA Applied Sciences Program.