Human behavior is currently neglected or insufficiently represented in global change models (broadly defined). Where represented, it is often limited to simplistic treatments or exogenous assumptions. While the need to more realistically represent human behavior in these models has been frequently identified, no systematic advances have so far been realized that cut across and are applicable within multiple scientific communities.
The aim of this workshop is to break through this impasse by connecting modelers and behavioral scientists to examine viable pathways to collectively accelerate the modeling of human behavior at a time when it is needed more than ever.
While scientists have spent a great deal of effort improving the accuracy of the biogeo-chemical/-physical and socio-technological dynamics of current-generation global change models, such models lack a similarly deep and systematic representation of human behavior. Capturing the dynamics of human behavior is thus identified as critical to increasing the realism and policy relevance of global change models.
Yet, while this call resounds across diverse global change research communities, taking it up has proven difficult. Current attempts to model behavior and lifestyle changes mostly represent these as exogenous, static assumptions. Few modeling teams have attempted to represent such changes endogenously, and those attempts tend to be offered as proofs-of-concept, showcasing the novel insights achieved when behavior becomes a fully integrated aspect of modeling. These seminal works remain sporadic, do not build systematically on previous work in other disciplines, employ different methodologies, and, thus, tend to remain siloed within their respective communities.
Moreover, behavioral scientists (psychologists, sociologists, behavioral economists, and others) have only been involved in global change modeling to a limited extent up to now. Theory and empirical research occur mostly disconnected from modeling activities; and therefore, the outstanding research questions on top of the behavioral science agenda are often inconsistent with those in modeling communities. This leads to the unfortunate outcome that while a large behavioral science literature on what drives behavior and lifestyle change exists, it is not reaching its full potential to help understand how the world may evolve over the coming decades – technologically, institutionally, and socially – from a quantitative, forward-looking modeling perspective.
Taken together, human behavior fails to be represented realistically in global change models – or at least as well as it could be, considering the multitude of uncertainties at play and the limits to what models can capture. This workshop aims to break through this impasse by bringing together pioneers and thought-leaders in this space, with the goal of synthesizing cross-community learnings and charting new paths forward for the benefit of science and practice worldwide.
Modelers will represent varied expertise and methodological approaches in representing human behavior and lifestyle change across the spectrum of global change research. Relevant modeling communities include multi-sector dynamics modeling; integrated assessment modeling; Earth systems modeling, energy systems modeling; agriculture, forestry, and land use modeling; water systems modeling; complex systems modeling; health and epidemiological modeling; and sector-specific modeling in the transport, buildings/housing, and food/nutrition areas. Behavioral scientists will hail from similarly diverse communities: psychologists, sociologists, behavioral economists, and others studying human decision-making, lifestyle choices, culture, and well-being, in particular the factors that promote or hinder societally beneficial actions.
The primary outcome of this workshop will be to stimulate a more cohesive research community and a new generation of advanced methodologies focused on human behavior within global change modeling. The primary outcome for practitioners, by extension, will be an improved set of tools that can be drawn upon in the years ahead for informing decision-making across a variety of fields: energy, food/agriculture, economics, transport, housing, health care, and more.
Primary Expected Outcomes
Secondary, Long-Term Expected Outcomes
Event Co-Chair
The attendee list and participant profiles are regularly updated. For information on participant affiliation at the time of workshop, please refer to the historical roster. If you are aware of updates needed to participant or workshop records, please notify AGCI’s workshops team.
