Next-Generation Food Shock Modeling
This workshop will facilitate transformational change and science-based foresight by bringing together climate, agriculture, health and nutrition, trade, security, and humanitarian aid expertise to advance next-generation tools and decision support systems that confront current and future challenges to food security and improved nutrition. Despite being commonplace today, climate-related food shocks are difficult to predict and it is difficult to track their wider repercussions. It is also widely agreed that the current trajectories of climate change and socioeconomic development will be punctuated by dangerous shocks and extreme event hazards affecting an exposed and vulnerable food system. This workshop will focus on understanding interactions among complex processes spanning multiple disciplines, systems, and scales.
This workshop will facilitate transformational change and science-based foresight by bringing together climate, agriculture, health and nutrition, trade, security, and humanitarian aid expertise to advance next-generation tools and decision support systems that confront current and future challenges to food security and improved nutrition. Despite being commonplace today, climate-related food shocks are difficult to predict and it is difficult to track their wider repercussions. It is also widely agreed that the current trajectories of climate change and socioeconomic development will be punctuated by dangerous shocks and extreme event hazards affecting an exposed and vulnerable food system. This workshop will focus on understanding interactions among complex processes spanning multiple disciplines, systems, and scales.
Discussion topics will include recent changes in the global food system (e.g., changing trade networks, food stocks, diets, and human health), current and shifting probabilities of extreme climate hazards (affecting one or more agricultural regions), likely behaviors of key food system players to shocks (e.g., governments, supply chain actors, transport logistics, private companies, international agencies, civil society organizations, individuals), and the ramifications for society (including economics, land use, migration, dietary insufficiency, food insecurity and malnutrition). Participants will explore real-time monitoring, probabilistic scenarios, and near-term forecasting of climate shocks, including climate variability and climate changes, and their effects on the food system. The workshop will also highlight ways in which this integrated, multi-disciplinary, and action-oriented research may scale up scientific advances in service to society. A major goal is to develop a framework with elements that may be used for operational response, risk assessment, and the testing and prioritization of intervention strategies for food shock risk reduction.
The workshop will bring together researchers and stakeholders who are strategically advancing critical disciplines including modeling (CMIP/climate, AgMIP/agriculture, integrated assessment models, and food system networks), informatics, behavioral economics, health and nutrition, and risk assessment (e.g., the Sendai Framework). Such transdisciplinary focus is essential given the complex and multi-dimensional aspects of the food system challenges that shocks impose, as well as the myriad of stakeholders and decision makers that attempt to anticipate, mitigate, and respond to growing risks. Workshop participants will share knowledge frameworks and together intuit linkage or interaction points and overarching framework principles for next-generation shock modeling. This includes incorporation of highly variable climate extremes, stressors and tipping points, and limitations and opportunities in our ability to make robust predictions and projections of future shock events. This will be achieved by tracking the signal of shock events within processes and decision contexts across field, regional, and global scales.
Agenda
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10:40 am Lightning Presentations on Stakeholder Perspectives and Needs
11:15 am Supporting Implementation of the Sendai Framework for DRR and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
12:00 pm Background and Activity of the Gates Foundation
1:55 pm Lightning Presentations on Stakeholder Perspectives and Needs
2:00 pm Food Security and Nutrition in Humanitarian Emergencies
4:00 pm Open Discussion on Key Challenges for Next Generation Decision Support
8:55 am Lightning Presentations on Simulation Approaches
9:00 am Science in NASA’s Earth Science Division
9:35 am Crop and Livestock Modeling
10:35 am Lightning Talks on Session Themes
1:25 pm Session 4: Lightning Presentations on Simulation Approaches
2:45 pm Modeling the Association of Conflict- and Climate-Related Shocks with Acute Undernutrition Outcomes
3:30 pm Breakout Sessions on Current Methods and Opportunities for Next Generation Tools
11:15 am Breakout Sessions on Framework Elements and Applications by Time Horizon Perspective
Dr. Chris Funk of the USGS and UC Santa Barbara explores the relationship between climate change, catastrophic events, and human response. Between 2015 and 2018 an unprecedented series of droughts, floods, fires, heat waves and hurricanes took the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people, resulting in over $700 billion dollars in damages, costs similar in magnitude to a large scale war. The frequency and costs of weather and climate related catastrophes are increasing dramatically, as a growing population and a warmer climate place more people in harm’s way. Warming of the atmosphere can both increase the intensity of extreme precipitation and cyclones, while also increasing the impact of droughts and the extent of wildfires. Warming of the oceans can lead to coral bleaching and more intense wet or dry cycles. Against this back- drop of need, however, improved monitoring systems and models can help us improve our understanding of our physical, social and economic systems and help us manage risk and work towards a more sustainable future.
2:00 pm Breakouts to Develop Demonstration/Case Study Examples
Organizers
Attendees
The attendee list and participant profiles are regularly updated. For information on participant affiliation at the time of workshop, please refer to the historical roster. If you are aware of updates needed to participant or workshop records, please notify AGCI’s workshops team.