by James Arnott, Aspen Global Change Institute

November 2021 Research Review

Did global warming cause last week’s heatwave (or wildfire or flood or hurricane) in my hometown? Scientists treat this inquiry a bit like detective work, attempting to find a human “fingerprint” in climate and weather phenomena. Extreme events, by definition, are rare. This makes identifying fingerprints for just a single occurrence more difficult than attributing global trends in extremes to human-driven climate change (as the IPCC does with increasing confidence). However, scientists are finding ways to produce so-called “attribution” studies. Analytical advances, along with communicating findings better, mean attribution studies are now more relevant for impacted communities, policymakers, and the media in the wake of a particular extreme event.

by Aspen Global Change Institute staff

October 2021 Research Review

An emerging strategy known as agrivoltaics combines solar electricity generation with agricultural production in the same location. More and more research is evaluating agrivoltaics for its potential to enhance land use efficiency, climate solutions, sustainable food, and local economies. Different agrivoltaic configurations—such as combining PV with croplands, pastures, or pollinator habitats—may contribute to achieving sustainable energy and food goals simultaneously, while possibly reducing local opposition to PV deployment. This article reviews a few recent studies that uncover what researchers are finding about the myriad potential benefits of agrivoltaics.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

September 2021 Research Review

Fires have a long history in western montane ecosystems, but the fires of the last couple decades are a new beast. We’re seeing a perfect storm play out – the result of long-term fire suppression initiated by Euro-American colonists, climate change, and more people than ever building permanent dwellings in fire-prone forests (for more on wildfire attribution refer to our previous research review). We’re left with a new reality of increasingly frequent, more intense wildfires, greater loss of property and life, and a multitude of questions about what will be left when the megafires are out.

What kind of ecosystems will regenerate? How long will it take to see new growth? Will these continue to be landscapes humans and other animals can inhabit? The latest scientific research confirms that we must be prepared for a dramatically altered landscape in the coming decades.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

July 2021 Research Review

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is preparing to release the Sixth Assessment Report of how the climate has already changed and what we can anticipate in coming decades. Unlike past reports, this one will detail regional climate change and impacts as well as “tipping points,” which can trigger natural processes to transform into dramatically different and likely irreversible states. One such critical tipping point is the potential transformation of the world’s largest tropical forests from carbon sinks into net sources of carbon emissions. What does the latest research say about how long can tropical forests remain one of Earth’s greatest carbon sinks? How is climate change affecting this capacity?

by Julie Vano, Aspen Global Change Institute

June 2021 Research Review

Providing reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity in a warming world requires careful consideration of evolving electric energy supplies and demands. At the same time, energy supplies are likely to be altered by climate change as shifts in the physical environment -- changing water availability and increasing air and water temperatures -- reduce the capacity and efficiency of thermoelectric power plant operations, among other impacts. This combination of influences makes planning for power capacity expansion challenging, especially amid ever-increasing pressures to decarbonize. A new study by Fonseca and colleagues highlights opportunities for how long-term energy planning might include a more comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts, and how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

By guest authors Mark A. Bradford (Yale University), Chelsea J. Carey (Point Blue Conservation Science), Daniel A. Kane (Yale University), Emily E. Oldfield (Environmental Defense Fund), Darya Watnick (Yale University), Stephen A. Wood (The Nature Conservancy).

March 2021 Research Review

Although consensus exists on the importance of protecting and restoring agricultural soils to minimize soil erosion, rebuild fertility, improve rural livelihoods, and provide climate-secure food production, there is a strong disagreement among soil scientists about the soil's capacity to sequester meaningful amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. This research review explores this disagreement while providing a vision for moving forward.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

December 2020 Quarterly Research Review

This year the UNFCCC was forced to postpone COP26 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of November 2020 serving as a five-year anniversary of progress, it was marked by the U.S.’s official withdrawal from the Agreement under the Trump Administration. However, President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to rejoin the Paris Agreement within his first months, if not days, in office. What exactly does the U.S. stand to gain by rejoining the Paris Agreement? Recent research reviews progress to date, and the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for member countries.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

September 2020 Quarterly Research Review

Looking to the future, most scenarios that curb climate change to less than 2°C by 2100 rely heavily upon rapid scaling up of biofuels to offset emissions, especially within the transportation sector (including hard-to-decarbonize aviation and long-distance transport like trucking) as well as in the industry sector. Advocates point out that large bioenergy systems have the potential to not only displace fossil fuel emissions but sequester carbon in soils of feedstock crops, biochar, or when coupled with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Critics, however, point out that bioenergy at scale is land intensive, which will likely bring it into competition with food production (even with increasing crop yields), as well as habitat conservation and restoration priorities.

Two recent publications investigate questions about when and how biofuels and bioenergy can be sustainably deployed in the coming decades.

by James Arnott, Aspen Global Change Institute

September 2020 Quarterly Research Review

California is in the middle of another unprecedented fire year. Amid the bleak outlook, there are important lessons to learn about the climate and non-climate drivers of California’s fire activity. The clear and mounting evidence that climate change is influencing—and will continue to influence—California’s recent fire activity augments the rationale for more aggressive efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, more attention to the non-climate factors that drive fire risk, such as the political and social dynamics of fire management, may also be crucial for reducing future impacts.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

June 2020 Quarterly Research Review

The COVID-19 pandemic spurred a global cessation of travel, manufacturing, and countless economic activities. Because our economies are still coupled with the burning of fossil fuels, this markedly reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In April, daily emissions fell by as much as 17 percent, and total 2020 emissions may be 7-11 percent lower than 2019. But as many countries’ economic activities have resumed, emissions have quickly begun resurging. And yet, opportunities exist through climate-friendly recovery packages to not only stimulate economies, but also reduce emissions while promoting social and environmental co-benefits. While economic rescue packages were targeted at triaging markets and personal financial impacts on immediate time scales, subsequent recovery packages will hold the key to whether the global response to this pandemic will curb or accelerate climate change in the long-term.