Resources

Many of the temperate zone major cities of the world, specifically those in Europe, Asia, and North America, are closely associated with large food-producing areas. This Elements of Change report looks into this relationship and the implications for the future organization of human populations and the quality of conditions necessary for productive agriculture and healthy urban environments. Particular attention is given to the case study of the metro-agro-plex in China. In addition, this report discusses issues associated with urban air and water pollution impacting agricultural productivity downstream and downriver and conversely agriculturally based pollutants from fertilizer, pesticides and soil erosion impacting neighboring urban areas.

This Elements of Change report grapples with the difficult question of how to anticipate change in dynamic and complex systems such as the physical, biological, and chemical properties of the Earth system confounded by human interactions with those systems both intentional and unintended. The report reflects the conclusions of an interdisciplinary group of scientists who collaborated to develop a typology of surprise and considered ways to anticipate thresholds and non-linear responses to forcings.