Anticipating Global Change Surprises

This Elements of Change report grapples with the difficult question of how to anticipate change in dynamic and complex systems such as the physical, biological, and chemical properties of the Earth system confounded by human interactions with those systems both intentional and unintended. The report reflects the conclusions of an interdisciplinary group of scientists who collaborated to develop a typology of surprise and considered ways to anticipate thresholds and non-linear responses to forcings.

Suggested citation:

Hassol, S.J., J. Kasperson, and J. Katzenberger, eds. 1995, electronic edition 2008. Anticipating Global Change Surpirses. Proc. of an Aspen Global Change Institute Workshop 31 July-13 August 1994, Elements of Change series, AGCI. https://doi.org/10.69925/WCIU8249