Climate is changing—throughout the Rockies, across the United States, and for the planet as a whole. Temperatures are increasing, rainfall patterns are shifting, and extreme precipitation and heat wave events are becoming more frequent. To ensure the health of our economy, the sustainability of our natural resources, and the resilience of our ecosystems, we need to understand and prepare for what our future climate will be like — not just for the world as a whole, but right here in the places where we live. Developing high-resolution projections, however, is a challenging task, riddled with uncertainties.

Using practical examples from my work with cities, states, and a broad range of stakeholders across the U.S., I will describe the models and methods used to develop local to regional-scale climate projections. I’ll also discuss how this information can be used to help real people, from wine growers in California to water managers in Texas, prepare for a changing climate.

With the worlds population growing toward 9 billion--coupled with rising incomes, expanding meat consumption, and increased allocation of cropland for biofuels--the goals of meeting basic food needs, reducing global hunger, and preserving the health of the planet will become ever more challenging. In this public talk, Dr. Rosamond Naylor, fellow at Stanford University's Institute for International Studies, examines this challenge in the context of key countries, food-feed-fuel connections, and increased instability in commodity and financial markets.

Since Hurricane Katrina, there has been an increasing concern that a changing climate will bring about more frequent and more intense extreme weather events. This concern has motivated scientists to investigate the connection between global warming and extreme events such as hurricanes. In this lecture, Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research discusses the scientific evidence that suggests a connection between global warming and hurricanes and comments on the political ramifications of this connection.

Climate change is only one of the forces that fall under the umbrella of "global change." Disruptions to ecosystems brought about by warming and other variables affect biodiversity and bring about significant change to the global environment. In this public talk, Dr. Camille Parmesan, research fellow at the University of California Santa Barbara, reveals the correlation between climate change and shrinking biodiversity and highlights examples of how specific species are impacted by a changing climate. In her conclusion, Parmesan stresses the fact that species will be unable to adapt to climate change in the short-term, and she suggests that only by curtailing the long-term warming trend of the planet will we be able to preserve current species and ecosystems.

This Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture features award winning science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson, who discusses abrupt climate change and the paradigm shift that accompanies this new scientific concept. In addition to presenting the evidence for abrupt climate change, Robinson comments on the resistance within the scientific community and society at large to climate change theories. He posits that a culture war between capitalism and science is currently waging and warns the outcome could have tremendous effects for the future of mankind. In his conclusion, Robinson praises the ethical values of the scientific community and suggests that society as a whole look to the scientific method as a means for political organization.

Precipitation patterns in the American West are widely varied and lead to both tremendous floods and prolonged droughts, and understanding these variations is a key component in helping residents adapt to life in this region. In this lecture, Kelly Redmond, deputy director of the Desert Research Institute, discusses natural variability in precipitation patterns throughout the West and comments on the additional impact human-driven climate change may have on climate and water resources in the region.

The realization that society's reliance on fossil fuels is resulting in alarming changes to the Earth's climate is forcing people to evaluate a host of issues concerning energy consumption and its effect on the environment. This public event addresses these issues and endeavors to educate concerned citizens about the challenges that lie ahead. In the first half, David Keith, an expert on energy and professor at Carnegie Mellon University, describes the world's current consumption of fossil fuels and suggests future options for energy that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Keith presents the surprising idea that fossil fuel consumption can continue without its harmful side effects provided energy companies pursue carbon sequestration technologies, which Keith argues are both possible and practical. In the second half, Stanford University professor Steve Schneider talks about the challenging policy dilemmas presented by climate change in both the developed and developing world. As a possible model for pursuing environment-friendly policies, Schneider offers the case of Bhutan, a developing country that has favored environmental and cultural production over the material benefits of Western-style industrialization. This event is part of the Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture Series. Recorded on July 25, 2000 in Aspen, Colorado.

Improvements in energy efficiency alone are probably insufficient to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations and mitigate their global warming potential. In this lecture, Dr. Martin Hoffert, Professor Emeritus at New York University, demonstrates that a global transition to sustainable carbon-free energy systems must be initiated to avoid a "stabilization crunch" and to meet Rio Treaty implementation demands.

How do we get states to comply with international agreements that are themselves not very well specified, in a system that have no sanctions or other coercive instruments to bring to bear? In this lecture, Harvard government professor Abram Chayes, discusses the problem of compliance with respect to international agreements and suggests that international cooperation can occur without harsh coercive measures.

One of the most troubling forms of global change is the alteration of natural landscapes, which leads to habitat loss, invasive species, and diminished biodiversity. In this talk, Carla D'Antonio from the University of California, Berkeley provides an overview of how human activity is having a profound affect on natural living systems. Dr. D'Antonio argues that while society does pay attention to impacts that affect agriculture or other economic activities, it must become aware of the widespread changes that are degrading natural habitats and reducing biodiversity.

Dr. Stephen Schneider believes that in addition to the usual array of baffling scientific uncertainties, cultural, psychological and educational obstacles make these already difficult problems virtually unsolvable so long as we continue to deny their existence. In this lecture, Dr. Schneider, a professor from Stanford University and a public spokesman for global change issues, provides an overview of the science behind global change and discusses public resistance to its evidence. Dr. Schneider argues that in order to have a functioning democracy, citizens must start understanding and grappling with these pressing issues in global change.