by James Arnott, Aspen Global Change Institute

May 2022 Research Review

A couple years ago, a team of climate scholars posed a provocative question: “The Earth has humans, so why don’t our climate models?” (Beckage et al., 2020). Climate models clearly show how human activities are changing the climate, but they offer only a limited view of how a changing climate is also changing us. Since human actions are at the root of climate change, the scholars argued, incorporating more about people into climate models is crucial for creating realistic climate forecasts and making informed decisions.

Researchers are beginning to respond by modeling factors like public opinion, social norms, climate risk perception, technology learning rates, and the interactions between them. The results can help explain how, and how fast, we might reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with implications for policy design and technology adoption. This new research also reminds us how the assumptions included (or ignored) in models shape collective imagination about what climate solutions are possible.

by guest author Marta Darby, an attorney whose practice focuses on accelerating an equitable transition to clean energy

April 2022 Research Review

Residents in disproportionately burdened communities—frequently lower-income communities of color—endure greater air, water, and soil pollution, as well as other environmental harms. Systemic barriers, including persistent structural racism, often have left such groups with fewer resources to protect themselves and to build resilience. Climate change is exacerbating these longstanding injustices, leaving historically marginalized communities even more vulnerable and more at risk for energy insecurity.

The clean energy transition presents an opportunity to work toward alleviating such harms. In particular, new research showcases how coupling existing state efforts (1) to accelerate renewable energy adoption in underserved low-income communities and (2) to replace aging gas distribution networks with district heating and cooling could amplify the benefits of such efforts. Such a holistic approach could transform overburdened communities into high energy-performance communities that are safer and more resilient.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

March 2022 Research Review

To say that the European energy system is at a crossroads is an understatement. As European nations operationalize their commitments to the Paris Agreement, policymakers from across the EU and the UK are promoting the creation of more renewable energy communities (RECs). REC proponents cite additional benefits, including harnessing the power of individual households, improving buy-in for renewable energy, building new skills among REC members, and democratizing the energy transition. In light of events in Ukraine, there may be an even greater premium placed on such infrastructure.

European policymakers also view renewable energy communities as central to their efforts to ensure a just energy transition. In theory, RECs have the potential to empower communities and benefit energy-vulnerable and energy-poor households. But how does this play out in practice? A series of recent research and review articles caution against the broad-stroke assumption that RECs automatically produce greater energy justice and alleviate energy poverty. The authors argue that unless critically acknowledged and addressed, RECs could actually exacerbate socioeconomic divides and further disadvantage vulnerable communities. But local and national policies can address potential pitfalls and ensure that RECs can indeed be a mechanism for energy justice in the transition.

by Julie A. Vano, Aspen Global Change Institute

February 2022 Research Review

Faced with extreme weather events and other disruptions of the past two years, business leaders are rethinking how they evaluate climate risks and struggling to quantify climate change impacts and source the data needed to help evaluate those risks. In a 2021 perspective for Nature Climate Change, Tanya Fiedler of the University of Sydney Business School and Andy Pitman of the Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Sydney, and colleagues outline the challenges to businesses looking to climate science to help assess climate-related financial risks and suggest improvements to facilitate businesses’ ability to effectively mitigate or adapt to these risks.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

January 2022 Research Review

People around the world are increasingly aware of and impacted by climate change, which is connected, unsurprisingly, with a parallel uptick in associated mental health stress. A rich body of research examines the psychologies of how individuals and communities perceive and respond to climate change information, but peer-reviewed publications about the impacts of climate change on mental health are just emerging.

Recent articles highlight the challenges of studying this area, along with the lack of representation in current research among those most vulnerable to and those most impacted by climate change. They also underscore the need for equitable mental health research and services to transform climate anxiety and despair into hope and action.

by James Arnott, Aspen Global Change Institute

November 2021 Research Review

Did global warming cause last week’s heatwave (or wildfire or flood or hurricane) in my hometown? Scientists treat this inquiry a bit like detective work, attempting to find a human “fingerprint” in climate and weather phenomena. Extreme events, by definition, are rare. This makes identifying fingerprints for just a single occurrence more difficult than attributing global trends in extremes to human-driven climate change (as the IPCC does with increasing confidence). However, scientists are finding ways to produce so-called “attribution” studies. Analytical advances, along with communicating findings better, mean attribution studies are now more relevant for impacted communities, policymakers, and the media in the wake of a particular extreme event.

by Aspen Global Change Institute staff

October 2021 Research Review

An emerging strategy known as agrivoltaics combines solar electricity generation with agricultural production in the same location. More and more research is evaluating agrivoltaics for its potential to enhance land use efficiency, climate solutions, sustainable food, and local economies. Different agrivoltaic configurations—such as combining PV with croplands, pastures, or pollinator habitats—may contribute to achieving sustainable energy and food goals simultaneously, while possibly reducing local opposition to PV deployment. This article reviews a few recent studies that uncover what researchers are finding about the myriad potential benefits of agrivoltaics.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

September 2021 Research Review

Fires have a long history in western montane ecosystems, but the fires of the last couple decades are a new beast. We’re seeing a perfect storm play out – the result of long-term fire suppression initiated by Euro-American colonists, climate change, and more people than ever building permanent dwellings in fire-prone forests (for more on wildfire attribution refer to our previous research review). We’re left with a new reality of increasingly frequent, more intense wildfires, greater loss of property and life, and a multitude of questions about what will be left when the megafires are out.

What kind of ecosystems will regenerate? How long will it take to see new growth? Will these continue to be landscapes humans and other animals can inhabit? The latest scientific research confirms that we must be prepared for a dramatically altered landscape in the coming decades.

by Emily Jack-Scott, Aspen Global Change Institute

July 2021 Research Review

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is preparing to release the Sixth Assessment Report of how the climate has already changed and what we can anticipate in coming decades. Unlike past reports, this one will detail regional climate change and impacts as well as “tipping points,” which can trigger natural processes to transform into dramatically different and likely irreversible states. One such critical tipping point is the potential transformation of the world’s largest tropical forests from carbon sinks into net sources of carbon emissions. What does the latest research say about how long can tropical forests remain one of Earth’s greatest carbon sinks? How is climate change affecting this capacity?

by Julie Vano, Aspen Global Change Institute

June 2021 Research Review

Providing reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity in a warming world requires careful consideration of evolving electric energy supplies and demands. At the same time, energy supplies are likely to be altered by climate change as shifts in the physical environment -- changing water availability and increasing air and water temperatures -- reduce the capacity and efficiency of thermoelectric power plant operations, among other impacts. This combination of influences makes planning for power capacity expansion challenging, especially amid ever-increasing pressures to decarbonize. A new study by Fonseca and colleagues highlights opportunities for how long-term energy planning might include a more comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts, and how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.