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A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments

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Much progress has been made in recent years to improve climate modeling, but a failure to fully incorporate variables such as the carbon cycle prevent the accurate projection of stabilization scenarios. As a result, a next-generation of climate models is needed. This article lays out a roadmap for a new stage of climate modeling efforts, suggesting that two timeframes be addressed´┐Żnear-term (2005-2030) and long-term (2005-2100). The near-term would disregard the effects of the carbon cycle and use already committed to CO2 levels to gauge regional impacts. The long-term models would assess climate outcomes on the basis of potential policy options and incorporate carbon cycle feedbacks through the use of three different experiments.

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