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Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future Climate Change

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Climate models used in the writing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Second Assessment Report indicate that future weather extremes as a result of climate change are likely to include a greater frequency of extreme warm days, lower frequency of cold days, higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, as well as a range of other climate variations. Subsequent models have reconfirmed these predictions, but there remains disagreement in current models as to the impact of synoptic time and space scale processes, such as tropical cyclones, El Nino effects, and extratropical storms. This article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge of possible future changes in the statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes.

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