• The Assessment Team
• National Advisory Panel
• Stakeholder Meetings & Community Input
  
  

THE ASSESSMENT TEAM

Climate Modeling: Stratus Consulting, Inc. in Boulder, CO used climate observations of the past, current trends, and climate models to forecast possible climate scenarios in Aspen. Researchers are using computerized climate models, including both large-scale General Circulation Models and smaller scale Regional Climate Models, to obtain detailed information on Aspen’s future climate.

Snowpack Modeling: Stratus Consulting, Inc. in Boulder, CO is handed the snowpack-modeling component of the study. They used two separate computer models to represent snowpack for Aspen in the years 2030 and 2100. The Snowpack Runoff Model (SRM) was used to analyze all four of Aspen’s ski mountains, while a more complex model called SNTHERM is yeilding detailed information about the snowpack of just Aspen Mountain.

Ecological Impacts: Wildlife & Wetland Solutions, LLC, conducted a literature review on the ecological impacts of climate change in mountain ecosystems. Research encompasses two major focus areas: (i) potential catastrophic effects of climate change and (ii) potential shifts in biomes as a result of climate change. Status Consulting contributed vegetation modeling and forest health components to the study.

Socioeconomic Impacts: Center of the American West at the University of Colorado and The Rural Planning Institute in Durango,CO examined the relationship between changes in climate and ski area conditions, and then quantified the resulting effect of changed skier behavior on the Aspen economy.

Streamflow Analysis: AGCI, Center for the American West, and Stratus Consulting, and TN& Associates teamed up under a grant from the EPA to assess the impacts of climate change on surface water quantity and quality in the Roaring Fork watershed and possible adaptation opportunities. Stakeholder interviews were conducted to identify key water uses and ecosystem resources that are likely to be most impacted by changes in surface water flows.

NATIONAL ADVISORY PANEL

AGCI assembled a top-notch National Advisory Panel to provide expertise and to advise the study methods.

Linda Joyce, USDA Forest Service
Ruby Leung, Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories
Hadi Dowlatabadi, University of British Columbia
Ron Nielson, USDA Forest Service
Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Nick Flores, University of Colorado
Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Dan Cayan, University of California, San Diego/ Scripps
Steve Schneider, Stanford University
Mike MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change, Climate Institute
John Harte, Rocky Mountain Biological Lab
Roz Naylor, Stanford University

The purpose of the meetings (June 2005 and January 2006) was for the stakeholders to learn about the potential effects of global warming on the Roaring Fork Valley, to meet the assessment team, and to direct the study through their input. Climatic, socioeconomic and ecological aspects of the study were discussed through presentations from researchers, large group discussions, and small “working groups.”

Areas of interest expressed by participants in the Stakeholder meetings included

• The effect of changing stream runoff patterns on local wildlife and recreational opportunities
  
  
• The impact of low-density, inefficient development on the greenhouse gas emissions of Roaring Fork Valley residents
  
  
• The possibility of incorporating some form of climate change education into recreational activities like rafting trips that reach a large cross-section of the population.
  
  
• Participants suggested that visitors are drawn to Aspen by its wealth of recreational opportunities, the quality of its natural environment, its emphasis on healthy living, and its image as a refuge from warmer and less serene parts of the world. Global warming, they said, had the potential to affect all of these things.
  
  
• Some questioned whether other factors, such as the aging of the local population, could have a larger effect on the local economy than climate change.