Aspen Global Change Institute Elements of Change 1996

AGCI Session I: Natural Hazards and Global Change

Session Chairs: Louis Walter and E. L. Quarantelli - July 10 to 17, 1996


Table of Contents

Acronyms

I. The AGCI Workshop

II. The Changing Environment

III. Elements of Natural Disaster Reduction

IV. Vision and Priorities for Action

V. Thematic Framework

VI. Summary Recommendations and Actions

Session One Participant Roster


AGCI Session II: Characterizing and Communicating Scientific Uncertainty

Session Chairs: Dr. Richard H. Moss and Dr. Stephen H. Schneider

July 31 to August 8, 1996


Table of Contents


Acronyms

Session Synthesis Essay: Characterizing and Communicating Scientific Uncertainty: Moving Ahead from the IPCC Second Assessment Richard Moss and Stephen Schneider, Session Chairs

Side Bar: Statistics Refresher

Bayesian Approaches to Characterizing Probabilities Richard Berk

Climate Effects on Food Security Robert S. Chen

Seismic Risk Analysis as an Example of Aggregating Expert Opinion C. Allin Cornell

What's a Journalist to Do? Challenges and Approaches to Reporting Scientific Assessment Sharon Dunwoody

Emissions Mitigation and Atmospheric CO2 Jae Edmonds

Models in the Policy Arena Paul Edwards

Uncertainties in Observed Changes in Climate Variables Tom Karl

Why the IPCC Detection Chapter Was So Controversial Michael MacCracken

Freshwater Ecosystems, Hydrology & Water Resources John J. Magnuson

Quantitative Expert Subjective Judgment: Does It Have a Role in Future IPCC Assessments? Granger Morgan

Subjective Probability Rankings and the IPCC Process Richard Moss

Estimating Damages and Costs of Climate Change Mohan Munasinghe

Technological Potential for Mitigation Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Different Levels of Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Analysis and Aggregation of Expert Opinions Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Communicating Estimated Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture John Reilly

How to Approach Assessing Climate Impacts on Animals Terry Root

Climate Change Detection and Attribution Assessment in the IPCC Proceedings Benjamin D. Santer

Empirical Estimation of Climate Sensitivity and Anthropogenic Sulfate Forcing and: When We Don't Know the Costs or the Benefits: Adaptive Strategies for Abating Climate Change Michael Schlesinger

Expressing Uncertainty and Subjective Probabilities and: The Role of the Scientist-Advocate Stephen Schneider

A Social Constructionist View of Scientific Objectivity Simon Shackley

Terrestrial Ecosystems: Controversies in Assessing Climate Impacts Allen M. Solomon

How Journalists Deal With Scientific Uncertainty S. Holly Stocking

Probabilities in Sea Level Rise Projections Jim Titus

Social Costs of Climate Change Richard S. J. Tol

Recent Changes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Climatic Implications Kevin Trenberth

Treatment of Uncertainty in Integrated Assessments John Weyant

Session Two Participant Roster


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