Table 2.4

Moss, 1996, Subjective Probability Rankings

Well-Established This category denotes wide agreement, based on multiple findings through multiple lines of investigation. A finding could be removed from this category not by a single hypothesis, observation or contention, but only by a plausible alternative hypothesis, based on empirical evidence or explicit theory, and accepted by a substantial group.

Well-Posed Controversy A well-established finding becomes a well -posed controversy when there are serious competing hypotheses, each with good evidence and a number of adherents.

Probable This category indicates that there is a consensus, but not one that has survived serious counter-attack by other views or serious efforts to "confirm" by independent evidence.

Speculative Speculative indicates not so much "controversy" as the accumulation of conceptually plausible ideas that haven't received serious attention or attracted either serious support or serious opposition.

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