AGCI Session I: Natural Hazards and Global Change

Session Chairs: Louis Walter and E. L. Quarantelli - July 10 to 20, 1996

Roger A. Pielke, Jr.

On assessing societal exposure to hurricanes

In recent decades, hurricane damages in the United States have risen while the frequency of storms in the Atlantic has decreased. This implies that the level of societal preparedness has become a more important factor in our vulnerability. Consequently, it is of utmost importance to develop skills in assessment of societal exposure, if we are to effectively identify actions that can be taken to reduce that exposure.

In 1992, Hurricane Andrew served as a dramatic assessment of Dade County's level of exposure to hurricane winds. While extreme damages occurred as might be expected in areas of greatest wind speed, extreme damages also occurred outside the area of greatest wind speed, which was not expected. With building codes the toughest in the nation, why did Dade County see such extreme damages in unexpected areas? A number of studies found that in spite of the tough codes on the books, implementation and enforcement of the codes was not adequate. Insurance industry estimates suggest that poor compliance with building codes accounted for about 25-40 percent, or about $4-6.5 billion, of the insured losses in south Florida due to Hurricane Andrew.

If we are to identify actions needed to improve a community's preparedness, then we must focus attention on ways of exposing a community's exposure before a hurricane strikes. For example, as explained above, Hurricane Andrew taught the insurance industry that a successful building code was as much a matter of effective implementation (compliance and enforcement) as it was having a strong code on the books. Thus, one insurance group has begun to evaluate building codes according to the level of implementation ( e. g., through enforcement budgets, frequency and quality of inspections) rather than simply through the words of the code.

Since hurricanes cannot be prevented, and since population and property at risk to hurricanes is large and expected to stay that way, there is a need to identify opportunities to improve preparedness. One important way that analysts can lend their particular skills to improving hurricane preparedness is to apply their existing tools and techniques to assess the health of preparedness plans and processes in various locales.

Related Figures:

Figure 1.11: Costliest Hurricanes in the U.S. from 1900 to 1996

Figure 1.12: Deadliest Hurricanes in the U.S. from 1900 to 1996

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