Aspen Global Change Institute Elements of Change 1996

AGCI Session I: Natural Hazards and Global Change

Session Chairs: Louis Walter and E. L. Quarantelli - July 10 to 20, 1996

2. Technology

The Challenge

Many existing technologies and technologies under development have considerable potential for application to natural hazards or disaster -related activities. However, there are limitations and obstacles that can and will limit the use of technology for these purposes. If technology is to be used effectively, it is clear that a "technology push" must be accompanied by a "demand pull." The "technology push/demand pull" theme is discussed in the context of Figure 1.4.

Figures 1.5 through 1.10 (except Figure 1.8): Pictoral representations of technology in natural disaster reduction

Figure 1.5 Caption: As this infrared image of Hurricane Andrew demonstrates, modern remote sensing capabilities help with early warnings that can save lives. However, with more property in harm's way, property damages continue to climb. (National Hurricane Center of NOAA)

Figure 1.6 Caption: Hurricane Andrew approaching Louisiana. (National Hurricane Center of NOAA)

Figure 1.7 Caption: Tsunami simulation. (Y. Tanioka, University of Michigan web site)

Figure 1.9 Caption: Hurricane Erin strike prediction. (NOAA)

Figure 1.10 Caption: An example of technology brought to bear in understanding ground deformation due to seismic activity. The image on the left shows interferometric fringes obtained from a before/after pair of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the 1992 earthquake in Landers, California. The image on the right is a synthetic interferogram from an elastic model by Massonnet et al. as shown at AGCI by Miriam Baltuck in a presentation about the use of remote sensing in natural hazards research. For more on this technique see Massonnet et al., Nature 364:138-141 (1993).

 

Many existing technologies and technologies under development have considerable potential for application to natural hazards or disaster-related activities.

The recommendations which follow are aimed at building a better bridge between "demand pull" and "technology push." This means that there should be a "pull" from the end users of technology who have particular needs as well as a "push" from scientists and engineers in academia, private industry and federal agencies who generate technological innovations that they think have relevance to the end user. There must be interaction and dialogue between the developers and the users of technologies.

There should be a "pull" from the end users of technology who have particular needs as well as a "push" from scientists and engineers in academia, private industry and federal agencies who generate technological innovations.

The Opportunity

For our purposes, "technology" is meant to broadly refer to tools, techniques, and facilities being developed by agencies ( e. g., NASA, NOAA, etc.), academia, and private industry that can possibly be used by operational decision makers such as those in FEMA to improve their understanding of and/or responses to natural hazards. In this report, such technologies are approached as solutions that may be applied to natural hazard administrative activities or to document and interpret problems revealed in appropriate data analyses. Technologies are to be considered as a means to an end and not an end in themselves. Some examples of technologies that are potentially relevant are:

· Communication technologies such as the World Wide Web, search software, cellular telephones, various warning systems, etc.;

Technologies are to be considered as a means to an end and not an end in themselves.

· Material science and software for the design and construction of buildings and other structures;

· Remote sensing technologies such as that associated with NASA satellite and aircraft missions, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites and other facilities, Department of Defense (DOD) activities, and private industry (aerospace) efforts;

· Analytical capabilities and tools for data analysis, data set assembly and comparison such as those associated or included in Geographical Information Systems (GIS);

· Data archiving and access technologies such as high density tapes, discs, etc.;

· Modeling of complex systems (e.g. , watersheds, general circulation of the coupled land/ocean/atmosphere systems, social systems, etc.) facilitated by increased computing power available through increasingly powerful personal computers, workstations and other computing systems;

· Global Positioning Systems (GPS);

· Doppler Radar such as that associated with the "Nex-Rad" system operated by NOAA and the total National Weather Service modernization; and

· Low-technology approaches that are too often underutilized such as wind shutters and fasteners applicable in hurricanes.

Our recommend-ations will help to build a bridge between those having technologies useful for natural hazards and those that could use such technologies if they were more familiar with them and had an opportunity to evaluate their capabilities.

This list is meant to be illustrative, not comprehensive. All relevant research and development agencies and physical and social science groups should be encouraged to continue research on technologies that are applicable to natural hazard activities.

The recommendations that follow will help to build a bridge between those having technologies potentially useful for natural hazards and those that could use such technologies if they were more familiar with them and had an opportunity or environment in which they could evaluate these capabilities. NASA technologies that have been developed in conjunction with their Mission to Planet Earth and the associated U. S. Global Change Research Program are good examples and a good starting place to build these bridges. Pilot or prototype projects are suggested as they are focused efforts that would allow the dialogue between technology developers and users to occur and facilitate the joint and in-depth evaluation in real-life contexts that is needed.

The following matrix (see Figure 1.8) shows the existing or near -term capabilities of remote sensing technologies for several natural hazards and the natural hazard activities that involve various administrative and decision-making activities. Like the examples above, this listing is illustrative, not comprehensive; there are other technologies that should also be evaluated and utilized as appropriate. Focusing, however, on remote sensing technologies almost automatically includes computing, data distribution, data analysis, archiving, and communications technologies. It is also clear that the existence of the remote sensing capabilities, or any other technology for that matter, is not a sufficient condition for effective use by decision makers.

The essence of the approach suggested is to pick a few natural hazards and follow the implementation and eventual evaluation of various technologies for natural hazard mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.

The existence of the remote sensing capabilities, or any other technology for that matter, is not a sufficient condition for effective use by decision makers.

Recommendations

1. More effectively bring technological advances to bear on the natural disaster reduction task. Evaluate technologies for documenting and interpreting trends and specific problems related to natural hazards.

The intent of this recommendation is to use technology to help establish the bases/trends that lead to the improvement or better focus of natural hazard activities on all levels. In essence, the purpose is to better identify what the real, as opposed to perceived problems are, and to document and interpret these problems as carefully as possible. Prototype or pilot projects that focus on specifics rather than generalities are suggested, so as to obtain detailed insights that would guide more general or widespread applications in the future. The intent is to identify those areas of vulnerability where available resources should be directed in order to expend fiscal and personnel resources most effectively.

The recommended activities have a strong research flavor to them, but the proposed research is expected to be part of the process of decision making and is intended to be directed toward facilitating disaster reduction activities. It is suggested that the Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SNDR) and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR) provide general guidance and coordination for the recommended technologically-related activities.

· Develop or improve complex systems models of physical and social systems so as to more rigorously identify vulnerability and thresholds that would guide the application of natural hazard -related resources. For example, the resilience of societal lifelines (e. g., highway systems) might be assessed through such models. In this effort, selected academic participants working with natural hazard agencies such as FEMA, HUD, and USGS should be involved to analyze the trends. The funding should come from R&D agencies (e. g., NASA, NOAA and NSF) with their guidance as to what technologies ( e. g., complex systems models, remote sensing systems, computing and analysis systems) should be employed and evaluated.

· Develop data sets specifically directed toward natural hazard problems utilizing the wealth of data planned for science-related purposes such as that included in the EOSDIS and the national Global Change DIS. In addition, efforts should be implemented to increase the effective use and availability of data from commercial satellite users. One existing example is an inventory of structures in a flood plain basin. The Scientific Assessment and Strategies Team (SAST) focused at the EROS Data Center of the U. S. Department of Interior is a subcommittee of the Federal Interagency Flood Plain Management Task Force focusing on the survey of flood plain conditions in the Upper Mississippi watershed.

Develop or improve complex systems models of physical and social systems so as to more rigorously identify vulnerability and thresholds that would guide the application of natural hazard-related resources.

· Develop a nationwide data set at a resolution exploiting Landsat, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and commercial satellite data. This data set should be updated periodically (annually, at minimum) so as to show differences before and after disasters.

Develop data sets specifically directed toward natural hazard problems utilizing the wealth of data planned for science-related purposes such as that included in the EOSDIS and the national Global Change DIS.

The operational agencies should evaluate the utility of the data set and provide at least the "in-kind" resources for this purpose. The R&D agencies (e. g., NASA, NOAA and NSF) should provide funding for facilitators (academia, private industry, government research personnel and resources) to allow the construction of the data sets and associated formatting).

· Develop real-time capabilities that would feed high-technology data closer to real-time, or near real-time into the decision making process. For instance, the presidential disaster -declaration process might be enhanced with more rapid access to data and other inputs. As in the other recommended actions, the primary support for the development and application of the technology should come from R&D agencies. A selected team of R&D agency personnel, facilitating personnel (academia and private industry), and decision making personnel should be involved. The activity should be illustrative, but probably not comprehensive due to funding limitations.

Develop real-time capabilities that would feed high -technology data closer to real-time, or near real-time into the decision making process.

2. Develop pilot projects related to technology, natural hazards and effectiveness of administrative activities.

This recommendation focuses on the conduct or implementation of pilot or prototype projects that explore the applicability of technology from the point of view of an entity with day-to-day, pragmatic or statutory decision making responsibilities for natural hazard or disaster administration and management. These suggested pilot projects should have the intent and purpose of finding spin-off applications of research and development, or "big science" activities already being conducted by NASA, NOAA, DOD, and private industries such as aerospace. The pilot projects should be focused on natural disasters/hazards that cover a spectrum of hazard types and a variety of different responsible agencies or industries. The hazard types can or should include floods, earthquakes or seismic events, weather-related phenomenon such as tornadoes, and interannual climate change events such as El Niño and related predictive capability for mid-latitude weather occurrences.

The operational/pragmatic entities involved may include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA, FEMA, the insurance industry, various state and local governmental agencies, academia, etc. The R&D entities should include NASA, NOAA, and NSF due to their involvement in the national and international global change programs and the fact that there are many technological capabilities being developed therein that have a high potential for application to natural hazard activities. As in the previous recommendation, it is suggested that the SNDR and the SGCR have the responsibility for providing guidance and coordination for the suggested projects. The pilot projects should be implemented and evaluated relative to the four major natural hazard activities: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Specifically, the pilot projects should include the following:

· A "descriptive" approach should be applied to ascertain what technologies are now being used operationally and with what level of effectiveness.

· A "prescriptive" approach should be used to evaluate what technologies are not now being used but appear to have high potential for being useful in the context of benefit to cost ratios or increasing cost effectiveness with regard to existing facilities and personnel.

· An effort should made to develop increased public awareness of NHDR-relevant data or capability in NASA, NOAA, and DOD R&D activities.

· Include education, training and developmental activities that make existing technologies (data archives, analysis software, models, etc.) more amenable to use by the appropriate operational users and/or individual citizens. This effort should particularly focus on those technologies shown to be useful in the pilot efforts.

The pilot projects should be focused on natural disasters/hazards that cover a spectrum of hazard types and a variety of different responsible agencies or industries.

More specifically, and referring to the matrix of technologies provided earlier (see Figure 1.8), it is suggested that an initial set of pilot projects (the number limited primarily by available funding) be conducted for floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, and drought. A brief sketch of each proposed pilot project follows:

Homeowners wade to retrieve belongings during 1993 Midwest floods. FEMA photo by Andrea Booker.

Floods

In this pilot project the technologies to be implemented and evaluated are shown in the matrix. A possible team would include the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, USGS, FEMA, selected state and local emergency managers (decision makers), NASA and NOAA (R&D), academia (social and physical scientists), and private industry (facilitators). The pilot project would focus on a representative basin such as the Colorado River, Missouri River Basin, Ohio River Basin, or smaller basins, as selected by the decision makers.

Earthquakes

This project would also use the technologies suggested in the matrix. The team involved might include USGS, FEMA, selected state and local emergency managers, NASA, NSF and selected academic (social and physical scientists) and/or private sector facilitators. Some representative site (most likely in California) would be identified by the decision making/operational agencies.

Include education, training and developmental activities that make existing technologies more amenable to use by the appropriate operational users and/or individual citizens.

Tornadoes

This project should involve NOAA, FEMA and other decision makers (including local and state personnel) working with NASA and NOAA technologies and other personnel such as those suggested above. Given the rapid-response, real-time nature of the preparedness and recovery aspects, the guidance for implementation should come from NOAA.

Drought

This project involves long-term prediction for mitigation and preparedness activities that use remote sensing technology and coupled ocean/atmosphere/land models. The suggested focus is on the implications for the insurance industry, i. e. , the principal decision making entity is the insurance industry working with appropriate agencies ( e.g., U. S. Department of Agriculture). For the "technology-push" funding, NASA, NOAA and NSF would be involved.

The issue of data cost and how to reduce it should be examined carefully. Experience indicates that this issue often affects many of the considerations involved in the above recommendations.

Holistic Pilot Project Focused on Communities

Rather than focusing specifically on one hazard as in the above, this project would instead choose a community or several communities wherein the utility of technologies would be evaluated in terms of a community being able to mitigate the full range of hazards they might be expected to face. Working with the community might be selected county, state and local agencies along with the R&D entities and social and physical scientists.

These pilot projects should occur in the form of cooperative agreements between the R&D and operational entities wherein there will be a close examination of the decision and operational processes and the effectiveness of technologies when used in these processes. The collaboration or cooperation should involve substantive contributions from both sides, but with the "technology push"/R&D side having the principal responsibility for facilitating the pilot project efforts so as to minimally impact the conduct of operational activities. On the other hand, the operational entities must devote requisite resources and attention to ensure that those technologies shown to be clearly useful in the pilot projects can be implemented as appropriate over the long term. The process requires two-way collaboration.

3. Inventory Technologies and Their Utilization by Communities and the General Citizenry

In support of the recommendations and actions discussed above, a review should be made of technologies relevant to natural hazards reduction with the view of explaining the availability of these technologies, the status of their development and applicability to natural hazards decision making activities, and the accessibility (along with costs, etc.) of educational and training programs that would enable the general citizenry to use these technologies. This material should be written and widely disseminated. It is suggested that NASA be tasked with this responsibility, and should work with the SNDR and SGCR to obtain their review and guidance.

As a final note, the issue of data cost and how to reduce it should be examined carefully. Experience indicates that this issue often affects many of the considerations involved in the above recommendations.

This project would choose a community or several commu-nities wherein the utility of tech-nologies would be evaluated in terms of a community being able to mitigate the full range of hazards they might be expected to face.

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