AGCI Session I: Natural Hazards and Global Change
Session Chairs: Louis Walter and E. L. Quarantelli
- July 10 to 20, 1996
II. The Changing Environment In the realm of natural disasters, there are two contradictory
trends. The implementation of effective public policies, assisted by
appropriate scientific and technological developments, has resulted
in a decrease in the number of injuries and fatalities resulting from
natural disasters. On the other hand, ineffective policies, coupled
with the failure to develop or adopt appropriate technologies, have
resulted in continuing escalation of the economic costs of natural
disasters (see
Figure
1.1). In the United States alone, these costs have been estimated
to approach one billion dollars a week. It is clear that the
well-being of our country, its people and its economy, demands action
against this large and increasing drain on its resources. The nation,
and indeed, the world, can no longer tolerate the needless costs and
loss of life resulting from natural disasters. The increasing cost of disasters is influenced by other societal,
technological and environmental trends. Most serve to escalate this
trend while some tend to diminish it.
While there has
been a decrease in the number of injuries and fatalities resulting
from natural disasters, there has also been a continuing escalation
of their economic costs.
Expanding population This increases the number of people, and the size of the
infrastructure exposed to risk. Urbanization Concentration of populations in cities greatly magnifies
disastrous effects. Cities themselves are often located in areas
vulnerable to earthquakes. There is a pronounced growth of coastal
cities which are exposed to hurricanes and storm surges. (See
Figure
1.2.)
There is a
pronounced growth of coastal cities which are exposed to hurricanes
and storm surges.
Changing demographics Factors such as aging, poverty and race place large sectors of the
population at risk. Increased interdependence Globalization of the economy and international trade considerably
broaden the geographic effects and reach of natural disasters. Changing values What some see as a cultural return to individualism may cause
people to take more responsibility for themselves, which may make
them more aware of hazards and accepting of their role in avoiding
them. This trend is coupled with, and related to, that of increasing
environmental awareness, as well as what may be a trend towards
increasingly decentralized political authority and power.
This is coming about through detailed, synoptic and repetitive
observations from space which make it possible to detect and map
environmental and cultural change, as well as through the acquisition
of other data which are used to improve our understanding of
processes and to help model natural phenomena. Improved analytical methods These are making it possible to model and understand complex
natural and social systems and their interactions by using high
performance computation and systems models. Enhanced communication In order to be of use, both observational and analytical results
must be deliverable in a timely, convenient and comprehensible form.
Advancing techniques for visualization of these products as well as
techniques for their prompt delivery as directly-usable products are
making this possible. Advanced engineering practices Improved understanding of the susceptibility of materials and
structures coupled with the development of new engineering approaches
and designs can decrease disaster losses. Increased reliance on technology Technology is often particularly sensitive and vulnerable to
disasters. Furthermore, the increasing dependence of society on a
variety of interdependent technologies including electric power
systems, computer systems, telephone networks, etc., often greatly
magnifies the effects of disasters.
Detailed,
synoptic and repetitive observations from space make it possible to
detect and map environmental and cultural change.
Short-term climate change At the seasonal to interannual scale, climate change associated
with changes in ocean temperature and currents has been demonstrated
to be a significant factor in drought and flooding. The question of
the relationship between climate change (at any scale) and the
frequency and intensity of tropical storms bears further study. Global Change We have come to consider the Earth as a system of interacting and
interdependent spheres (atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, and
hydrosphere). It is also now recognized that human beings are an
important component of this system. With the growth and concentration
of the world's human population and its increased reliance on, and
use of, technology, it has become apparent that humanity itself
constitutes a major environmental force. Resources once considered "renewable" resources can indeed become
limited when put to the stress of over-utilization. Thus, fertile
soils, which may take tens of thousands of years to develop, are
wasted through overuse and erosion. Aquifer levels are depleted and
rivers dammed and diverted to supply water for human use. Trees and
fish are harvested at unsustainable rates. The range of human impacts on the Earth system includes: changes
in the nitrogen cycle, depletion of stratospheric ozone and a
resulting increase in ultraviolet radiation at the planet's surface,
an increase in tropospheric ozone and other pollutants, human
appropriation of a large fraction of the Earth's net primary
production and of its fresh water, large scale deforestation, species
extinctions, and a reduction in biological diversity.
With the growth
and concentration of the world's human population and its increased
reliance on, and use of, technology, it has become apparent that
humanity itself constitutes a major environmental
force.
It is feared that anthropogenic "greenhouse gases" emitted into
the atmosphere may be causing the climate to warm and that some of
the effects of this warming could be to increase the frequency of
droughts and extreme climatic events as well as coastal inundation
due to sea level rise. Questions regarding the detection and
attribution of such changes are being addressed in one of the most
intense scientific efforts in the world today. Natural disasters are generally thought to represent the adverse
effects of rampaging nature on humanity. A global view of the Earth
system indicates that the opposite may be true, at least to a
significant degree; humanity can have serious adverse effects on its
environment. An important corollary of this view is that survival
lies in the ability of our species to understand the Earth system and
to adapt to its environment without unduly or irrevocably damaging
it. See Side Bar: William Hooke: On the
relationship between natural hazards and global change
Survival lies in
the ability of our species to understand the Earth system and to
adapt to its environment without unduly or irrevocably damaging it.
Northridge earthquake, California, 1994. FEMA photo.
Absent detailed study and analysis, we can only approximate the
financial losses resulting from disasters, but it is clear that these
represent a major factor even to the resilient economy of the United
States. In countries with less robust economies, disasters can and do
have severe effects on sustainable development, making these
countries more dependent on external aid and vulnerable to social
unrest. The pronounced trend in the developed countries, in recent years,
to decreased loss of life due to natural disasters provides
encouraging evidence that, while society cannot control natural
hazards, it is able to control some of their more disastrous effects.
However, societal and natural trends will inexorably result in even
greater economic losses in the future unless we, as a nation, and as
a world of nations, take steps to mitigate hazards' disastrous
effects. This will require the combined forces of technological development
and social change, carried out against the backdrop of complex
systems analysis. It will require interdisciplinary discussion and
understanding among specialists from wide-ranging disciplines and
various sectors of the social and political structure. It will
require commitment as well as the assignment and acceptance of
responsibilities for coordinated action by governments at various
levels, by business and by communities. Recent sharp increases in economic losses will be merely warnings
of huge losses in the future if we continue to ignore the risks. Even
more menacing is the possibility that the adverse trends, if ignored,
will result in increased loss of life. The continued personal safety
and economic security of future generations will depend on actions
taken in the present time. The decisions we make now with respect to
land use and construction will determine the vulnerability of future
societies. "...the time has come to mount a nationwide effort focused on
reducing the impact of disasters as well as reducing the economic
consequences." President Bill Clinton, December 6, 1995 See Side Bar: Joanne Nigg: On the
social process of adopting technology
The decisions we
make now with respect to land use and construction will determine the
vulnerability of future societies.
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Technological Trends
Increased understanding
