Box plots of elicited probability distributions of the change in global average surface temperature resulting from a doubling of CO₂. The horizontal lines denote the range from minimum to maximum assessed possible values. Vertical marks indicate the locations of the lower 5th and upper 95th percentiles. The boxes indicate the interval spanned by the 50% confidence interval. The solid dots indicate the mean and open dots, the median.

The columns of numbers at the right report values of mean and median standard deviation of the distributions.

Reference: M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, Subjective Judgements by Climate Experts, in Environmental Science and Technology, 29 :468-476,1995.