Selected Candidates for Global Change Surprise
Arranged According to "Surprise" Arenas
Greenhouse gasses are less than 2 X CO2.
The world emission rates peak and decline in the near
future.
Strong international agreements are implemented.
Rapid decarbonization of energy system takes place
because
- low cost biomass alternatives are developed.
- artificial photosynthesis is mastered.
inherently safe, inexpensive nuclear power is developed.
- large natural gas discoveries are made in China.
- China and Brazil develops a large biomass-energy industry.
Energy/GNP ratio declines sharply because
- low-energy technology is improved and adopted globally.
- development increases per capita GNP sharply
World economic growth rates decline sharply because
- of the demise of the nation state leading to conflict and
collapse.
- of the emergence of a new, quick acting and highly contagious
virus, reducing populations globally.
Minimal deforestation takes place because
- land-use cover stabilizes in South America and elsewhere in
the tropics.
Greenhouse gasses are far more than 2 X CO2.
More than 50% of incremental CO2 remains in the atmosphere,
sinks become saturated, and world emission rates grow
sharply.
No significant policies are adopted because
- improved understanding of climate impacts identifies winners
and losers, thereby destroying consensus in the international
community for emission reductions.
- people place low value on environmental impacts.
- of the demise of the nation state leading to conflict and
collapse.
Decarbonization of the energy system stops because
- R&D on low-carbon sources halts.
- nuclear accidents cause a shutdown of all nuclear plants.
China continues its commitment to coal use.
- India increases coal-based energy significantly.
Energy/GNP ratio stops declining because
- the Demographic Transition does not take place in developing
world.
- energy prices remain low.
- cost of energy conservation proves too expensive to implement.
- a switch to a service economy in the Western or developed world
proceeds slowly.
Increased deforestation takes place because
Siberia incurs major deforestation and degradation.
- the developing world remains proportionately behind the
economies of the developed world, leading to sustained land-cover
changes.