Alaska and the Bering Sea Regional Workshop on Climate Change Impacts

Gunter Weller

Patricia Anderson

Gordon Nelson

The Bering Sea Impacts Study (BESIS) area is perhaps the largest of all the U. S. regional impacts assessment regions, covering the Western Arctic from the Mackenzie River to the Lena River. It includes the Bering Sea fisheries, a very important component of the Alaskan economy, and of economic interest to the Japanese and Russians who also fish these waters. Additional important elements of the study region include other renewable and non-renewable resources, Native populations in numerous small villages practicing subsistence lifestyles, and transboundary issues with Russia and Canada, involving, for example, climate effects on the migration of polar bears and caribou herds.

A workshop was convened in June of 1997 by the Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, and sponsored by the U. S. Global Change Research Program, the National Science Foundation, the Department of the Interior, and the International Arctic Science Committee. Its goals were to tell stakeholders about the importance of climate change on issues of particular concern to them; to hear stakeholders concerns; to refine the coarse impact assessments already compiled from previous workshops; to define a research agenda to further improve the impact assessments; and to develop support, with the help of the stakeholders, for mitigation and adaptation options.

This region is important to the nation for several reasons. First, future climate change is predicted to be largest in the Arctic region and the presently observed change in climate is already quite large, exceeding the changes predicted by global climate models. Second, the economic and social impacts of climate change could be widespread since the region produces 20 percent of U. S. domestic petroleum consumption, has the two largest fishing ports in the U. S. (Dutch Harbor and Kodiak), and has the largest parks, wildlife refuges and preserves in the U. S. It also has other major wildlife resources and has sometimes been considered the "Serengeti of the North."

Future climate change is predicted to be largest in the Arctic region and the presently observed change in climate is already quite large.

Quoting from the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program's 1991 Belagio report, the workshop stressed the regional emphasis in global change prediction. "...Global change predictions will be of greatest value to decision makers on a regional basis, and if scientists from throughout the region are involved from the start in the processes through which change is generated."

Although the resolution of current general circulation models (GCMs) represents Alaska poorly, it is nonetheless clear that there is a great amplification of climate change in high latitudes and that the climate signal will be strongest there. Figure 2.5, comparing images of the region at 400 kilometer resolution and 40 km resolution illustrates the need for finer resolution regional assessments.

Global change predictions will be of greatest value to decision makers on a regional basis, and if scientists from throughout the region are involved.

Figure 2.5

The region at 400 km and 40 km resolution

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1995 reported that expected changes in the region with a doubling of carbon dioxide would include:

• Pronounced reductions in seasonal snow, permafrost, glaciers, and periglacial features, with a corresponding shift in landscape processes (High Confidence);
• Increases in the thickness of the active layer of permafrost and disappearance of extensive areas of discontinuous permafrost (High Confidence);
• Disappearance of up to a quarter of the present mountain glacier mass (Medium Confidence);
• Less ice on rivers and lakes; later freeze-up and earlier break-up (Medium Confidence);
• Substantially less sea ice in the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean (30 to 50 percent for the latter) and reduction in ice thickness (Medium Confidence).

The IPCC 1995 Assessment further reported that:

• Many components of the cryosphere are sensitive to changes in atmospheric temperature because of their thermal proximity to melting. The extent of glaciers has often been used as an indicator of past global temperatures (High Confidence).
• Projected warming of the climate will reduce the area and column of the cryosphere. This reduction will have significant impacts on related ecosystems, associated people, and their livelihoods (High Confidence).
• There will be striking changes in the landscapes of many high mountain ranges and lands at high northern latitudes (High Confidence). These changes may be exacerbated where they are accompanied by growing numbers of people and increased economic activities (Medium Confidence).

Modeling studies project a dramatic northward shift of hundreds of kilometers of the permafrost boundaries as well as a shift in treeline with associated severe impacts to ecosystems. The IPCC predicts poleward migration of treeline and establishment of new ecosystems as entire forest types disappear (High Confidence); changes in the migration patterns of polar bears and caribou (High Confidence); and fisheries and marine mammals displacement due to ocean temperature and sea ice changes with many species shifting poleward about 150 km for every 1° C temperature increase (High Confidence).

Air temperatures over most of Alaska have increased by 3 to 4°C in winter/spring from 1961-1990. This trend of 1°C per decade exceeds model predictions, is highly significant and has caused substantial impacts.

Observational evidence

Observed changes in this region have been dramatic over the past three to four decades:

• Air temperatures over most of Alaska have increased by 3 to 4°C in winter /spring from 1961-1990, and about 1°C in summer. This winter/spring trend of 1°C per decade exceeds model predictions, is highly significant and has caused substantial impacts.
• Annual snowfall has increased from 1950-1990 by about 20 percent in Canada (N of 55°) and about 11 percent over Alaska.
• Cyclone and anticyclone frequency has increased over the Arctic between 1952 and 1989.
• Sea ice extent in the Bering Sea has been reduced by about 5 percent over the last 40 years, with the steepest decrease occurring in the late 1970s.
• Glaciers have generally receded, with typical ice thickness decreases of 10 meters over the last 40 years.
• Borehole measurements in permafrost have shown warming of up to 2 to 3°C over the last 100 years in some areas, as well as thawing at both top and bottom in the discontinuous permafrost areas.

Figure 2.6

Climate-Related Observations

Figure 2.6 shows four graphs of climate-related observations in this region. In addition , the mass balance of most glaciers in Alaska has been substantially reduced, as shown, for example, by the dramatic recession of the Muir Glacier (not solely due to climate change). Also, discontinuous (patchy and relatively shallow) permafrost terrain which underlies much of Alaska, is very close to the melting point (much of it is at -1°C), and given that melting is now occurring from both top and bottom, it will not take much more for it to disappear completely. Whole forest ecosystems could be transformed into wetlands, bringing drastic changes.

Discontinuous permafrost terrain, which underlies much of Alaska, is very close to the melting point, and given that melting is now occurring from both top and bottom, it will not take much more for it to disappear completely.

A sudden climate shift was observed in the region in 1976, involving a jump in temperature which affected numerous environmental parameters, including the number of Canada Goose nests on the Columbia River, the salinity of Puget Sound, wind speeds in the subtropical North Pacific, the amount of chlorophyll in the Central North Pacific, salmon catches in Alaska, sea surface temperature in the NE Pacific, and sea ice extent in the Bering Sea. A total of 33 environmental variables were studied by Ebbesmeyer et al., 1991 , combining these variables into a single statistical measure which demonstrates how a relatively small step jump in climate effects the environment in a major way (Figure 2.7).

Social and Economic Impacts

In the end, it is the importance of addressing societal responses to regional climatic change that underlies our fundamental concern about global change. There are four time scales to consider:

(1) Seasonal to interannual (1-5 years), covering the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time frame where some forecasting ability exists.

(2) Decadal (20 years), the time scale of immediate practical concern to stakeholders for whom longer time scales are of little practical value. Predictions over this time scale are considerably more difficult than over the 1-5 year time scale.

(3) Century (100 years), the greenhouse effect time scale of interest to scientists and climate modelers and the time scale for significant human impacts of such processes as sea-level change and soil fertility change.

(4) Longer-term, including global change effects such as the bioaccumulation of contaminants which must be considered in impact assessments.

Working Groups

The major impact areas addressed by working groups at the workshop were:

• Fisheries: climate effects on commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries
• Coastal Zone: sea level rise, storm surges, erosion, effects on communities
• Land ecosystems: overgrazing, forest fires, insect outbreaks, permafrost thawing
• Resources: non-renewable resource development and transportation, energy systems
• Infrastructure: maintenance of roads, airports, sea ports, etc.
• Social/cultural issues: important parts of five impacts areas above

The position papers of these working groups include discussion of why the impacts area is of interest, what previous impacts have occurred, what were their causes, and how people coped with them. The papers also include discussion of current pressures and additional stresses expected due to climate change, uncertainties, additional research needed, and mitigation and adaptation measures or policy decisions that can help to reduce impacts.

Likely impacts on fisheries include changes in ocean productivity (location, volume and species), changes in anadromous fish (those that go up rivers from the sea to spawn) productivity and markets, seafood and fish industry (harvesters and processors) financial stresses, stresses on industry lenders and equipment manufacturers, and loss of fishing industry jobs and support services.

The impacts on land, including forestry, agriculture, parks and wildlife are likely to include insect outbreaks (such as the higher incidence of spruce bark beetles already observed), and more fire damage due to a warmer and drier climate in some areas.

It is the importance of addressing societal responses to regional climatic change that underlies our fundamental concern about global change.

Forest boundaries will move north and agriculture will benefit from a longer growing season. Land animals, including moose, caribou, reindeer, small mammals and birds will be affected by changes in the snow cover.

Likely impacts on the oil and gas industry include problems of human-made structures (pipelines, etc.) in thawing permafrost terrain, improved construction conditions after the thawing of permafrost, improved offshore exploration and production with less sea ice, increased threats from erosion to coastal installations, and threats to low coastal installations (e. g., Prudhoe Bay) due to higher sea levels.

Likely impacts on construction and transportation including thawing permafrost effects on buildings, roads, airports, sewage, and utilities, effects on freshwater resources and potable water, stream erosion effects on bridges, improved ship transport due to less sea ice, and the possibility of trans-Arctic shipping with less sea ice. It was pointed out that permafrost melting is a destabilizing force at coastal port cities and towns and this could interfere with the notion of improved and/or transport-Arctic shipping. It was also mentioned that barrier islands and lagoon ecosystems are very vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise.

The impacts on land, including forestry, agriculture, parks and wildlife, are likely to include insect outbreaks and more fire damage due to a warmer and drier climate.

A variety of severe impacts on discontinuous permafrost terrain are predicted to occur from a 3°C warming of permafrost. These include severe impacts on coastal processes, thaw lakes, table and base permafrost melting, thaw settlement, slope instability, solifluction (the downward movement of soil and rock caused by weather), and effects on engineered infrastructure. Some effects on continuous permafrost terrain are also expected, including moderate to severe impacts on vegetation and associated economic and social effects.

This active thermokarst (where the surface collapses after underground ice melts) is an example of the results of thawing permafrost (photo by Tom Osterkamp).

The effects of climate change on the native subsistence culture are a cause for great concern. Changes in sea ice conditions that affect ranges and abundance of seals, walrus, whales, and fish, and climate changes that affect caribou and moose migration, could put severe stresses on the native subsistence way of life. These would be added to existing stresses such as exposure to air, water and food-borne contaminants that concentrate in this region.

Changes in sea ice conditions that affect ranges and abundance of seals, walrus, whales, and fish, and climate changes that affect caribou and moose migration, could put severe stresses on the native subsistence way of life.

Subsistence lifestyles, such as this whaling camp at the ice edge, could be affected by climate change (photo by Don Schell).

About the Workshop

The workshop stressed that climate change is not a future problem, but rather is one being dealt with right now in Alaska. For example, major roads have to be rebuilt from scratch every six years due to permafrost thawing. Climate change is already rapidly underway in Alaska.

About 100 people attended the workshop. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were fairly well represented but industry was not ( e. g., no representatives from the petroleum industry attended). Natives were represented to a small extent, and the organizers concluded that they needed to reach out to them more. In general, it was felt that there was a need for additional recruitment to bring more stakeholders in, and this was partly a problem of the short time frame. More personal contact is probably needed, utilizing phone calls rather than letters. In addition, the four-day length of the meeting may have presented problems for some invitees. The workshop was not considered to be a one time event, but rather a long term process that needs to involve all stakeholders and all people concerned with the impacts of climate change.