Central Great Plains Regional Workshop on Climate Change Impacts

Dennis Ojima

Jerry Elwood

Tom Wilbanks

The evidence for climate change is becoming more compelling, yet most regions of the United States do not have a strategy to deal with the potential impacts of climate change. In the Central Great Plains region ( i. e., the Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming and eastern Colorado area), the potential impact of climate change is anticipated to affect winter snowfall, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperatures, and summer time average temperatures. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. In order to better understand the regional implications of these changes and to evaluate coping strategies, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) for the President and the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) sponsored a regional workshop to begin to assess these impacts. A workshop on climate change impacts on the Great Plains dealing with issues facing conservation, ranching and farming in four states: Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas and Nebraska, was organized in May 1997 at the Sylvan Dale Ranch in Colorado. The workshop's objectives were to:

(1) Understand the scope of potential climate change impacts on critical sectors in the Central Great Plains;

(2) Identify current constraints to environmental, economic, and social well-being in the region; and

(3) Develop a framework of coping strategies for mitigation and adaptation to environmental changes.

Climate change is anticipated to affect winter snowfall, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperatures, and summer time average temperatures.

Stakeholders invited to the workshop from the region included:

Key questions for the stakeholders included: What do people worry about regarding climate change? And what do they need to know that isn't known about climate change? Most of the public's information is at a very broad level and doesn't deal specifically with their community. Downscaling information from general circulation models (GCMs) brought up many questions regarding increased droughts, intensification of the hydrologic cycle, and rainfall patterns. A regional context was welcomed by the workshop attendees and helped add a local perspective to this global issue.

The workshop was structured to address these questions into four thematic breakout groups. These thematic areas were social issues, water resources, soil resources, and biological resources. The working groups' charge was to consider: what issues are of concern in this area presently; identify current conditions and trends; how climate change or increased climate variability might affect those issues/trends; what research is needed to prepare for and understand climate change consequences; and what coping strategies are available or needed to deal with climate change effects in this area. The working groups focused on:

Social: vulnerability/risk of communities, social/political structures to offset impacts, economic and political strategies for coping

Water: water quantity and quality and how these may effect human and ecological conditions (e. g., how might future climate scenarios effect the Rocky Mountains, a major source of water for Great Plains river systems)

Soil: soil erosion/fertility, carbon storage, salinization

Biology: plant/animal community change (native and introduced species), invasive weed and pest outbreaks, special crop/livestock breeds

Downscaling information from GCMs brought up many questions regarding increased droughts, intensification of the hydrologic cycle, and rainfall patterns.

Information provided to participants included data on temperature and precipitation changes in the 1900-1990 time series from the U. S. climate record, with a focus on the Central Great Plains. These data reveal large interannual variability, including a drought in 1933 and cooler and wetter conditions in 1958, bringing context to current changes. Participants were also presented with model results of temperature and precipitation changes forecast for various regions for transient climate change scenarios under different forcings. When sulfate aerosols were included, modeled results still indicate that more warming and more drought can be expected, but to a lesser extent than without sulfates.

Over 90 percent of the land is in farms and ranches, and 75 percent is cultivated. The vulnerability to climate change impacts is high for conservation and ranching interests.

Some of the key regional characteristics identified by the stakeholders as affecting the response to climate change include increased competition for water resources, major human transformations of land resources, temperature and precipitation restricting land use options, population shifting from rural to urban centers, trade centers thriving, high market variability, water availability and quantity declining, an increase in high-tech farm enterprises, and the fact that agriculture and livestock are major land uses. The vulnerability to climate change impacts is high for conservation and ranching interests, and moderate for farming interests which may be able to offset some of the impacts through technological advances. The following trends are anticipated to continue in the Great Plains:

The primary land use that has transformed the Great Plains grassland has been agriculture. Over 90 percent of the land is in farms and ranches, and 75 percent is cultivated. There are five major production systems in the Great Plains: range live stock, crop fallow, groundwater irrigation (aquifer-dependent), river valley irrigation (snowmelt-dependent), and confined livestock feeding. Great Plains agriculture is land-extensive and uses relatively few chemical inputs and labor per unit of land. Interspersed with rangeland are dry land fallow, wheat growing (an important area for this worldwide), irrigated and dryland corn in the eastern part of the region, and integrated poultry and pork production with grain producing (a growing economic enterprise in this region). Climate patterns in the region are warmer in the south and cooler in the north, and these temperature regimes define the vegetation: short grass steppe in the south, cool-season very productive rangeland grassland and spring wheat in the north. The rainfall pattern is more east-west: a meter of annual rainfall in the eastern part and 270-300 mm in the more arid western part. Native grassland systems are characterized by high carbon storage (7.5 kgC/m2) in the wetter and cooler northeastern portions, but agricultural practices in the region lead to losses of soil carbon of 50 percent compared to grassland systems, as seen in Figure 2.8. Wildlife concerns include biological interaction between domestic animals and indigenous wild grazers, fires, and transition zones.

Ranching is a significant land use in the region, and its vulnerability to climate change impacts is high (Penn State photo).

Water resources are scarce in the region, and are subject to great competition among the various users; e. g., urban demand for drinking water competes with water use for agriculture and wildlife conservation. Climate warming may severely impact the wetland areas of the region, bringing about severe consequences for migratory and local water fowl and other wildlife populations. Climate change may also cause greater crop damage due to increased drought stress resulting from higher growing season temperatures. The loss of soil from these croplands may be increased by the lack of plant cover. Ranchers in the region may not be able to support the current number of animals on the existing rangelands due to reduced dryland pasture production and lack of water resources for their animals.

The diverse water needs of the region compound the difficulty in managing water use among the various sectors. The assessment therefore must involve members of the water use and supply sectors to better understand the competing water needs among agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems. Understanding of the survival needs of aquatic systems under current demands and climate is incomplete. Water apportionment decision making between aquatic ecosystems and human needs must be more clearly assessed. We must begin to evaluate the effects that projected climate change will have on Great Plains aquatic ecosystems. This evaluation should also consider agricultural demands and water management. Changes in land use and climate will affect water quality, so, e. g. , we need to know how to best manage livestock wastes during extreme precipitation events.

Change in demographics, especially the aging or "graying" of the population and the migration to urban centers, is a real concern for people of this region. There has been a continued shift in the population from primarily rural to increasingly urban (see Figure 2.9). The number of ranchers and farmers is decreasing and half of those remaining are 55 years or older. The social-economic environment of the Great Plains is characterized by risk and marginality. Since the time of settlement, the variable and dry climate has made it difficult for people to live off the land. Agriculture is still the dominant lifestyle in this region in spite of the fact that narrowing profit margins are leading to consolidation into fewer and larger farms (see Figure 2.10).

The east to west gradient of declining moisture has determined the crop production pattern for the area. The variability of this climate has been somewhat overcome through the use of technology, such as fertilization, irrigation, and new crop varieties. Most farmers are grain producers, but increasingly, farm cash receipts are coming from livestock operations moving into the area. Sixty percent of the cattle industry is now concentrated in three Great Plains states, attracted by the dry climate, which allows feedlot cattle to thrive, and the open space far from population centers that allows for waste disposal. Figures 2.9, 2.10 and 2.11 illustrate changes in the Great Plains over the past century.

An increased number of noxious weeds, greater pest outbreaks, increased rate of aquifer use, and loss of wetlands for water fowl may result from increased temperatures in the region.

Associated with climate change will be a number of indirect effects that will modify the ecological integrity of many ecosystems in the region. An increased number of noxious weeds, greater pest outbreaks, increased rate of aquifer use, and loss of wetlands for water fowl may result from increased temperatures in the region. The economic and aesthetic costs of these changes have not been evaluated within the region. Strategies for mitigating or adapting to these changes have yet to be developed. The diverse communities which populate the Great Plains are sensitive to changes in habitat and climate patterns. Many of the species which thrive in the Great Plains have adapted to the variable rainfall patterns and the warm, moist summers. The agricultural and livestock industries have also adapted to these climate regimes. Changing climate patterns will cause changes in habitat extent and species mixtures for crops and livestock activities. As climate changes, the expansion of areas invaded by weeds and other pests may occur. Our understanding of what effects exotic species have on habitats and how climate change will affect invasability of different habitats needs to be included in the assessment activity.

The impact of climate change on habitat and biodiversity needs to be better understood and assessed. Species inventories and other information organized into data bases which are supported and maintained is needed to effectively monitor species and communities. There is a need to design experiments to test hypotheses over long time periods and to evaluate vegetation and faunal assemblages, including predator-prey relationships, environmental controls on community structure, and the impact of changing landscape heterogeneity on habitat integrity.

Agricultural and rangeland ecosystems play an important role in soil conservation and land management. Agricultural management has produced beneficial systems incorporating the use of grass/legume mixtures in dryland crop rotation, different cropping systems to improve soil carbon levels and reductions of trace gas emissions, improved water management, and integrated farming analysis to evaluate changes in farm management and conservation of natural resources. These efforts need to be extended relative to changes in climate in different regions of the Great Plains.

Assessment of rangeland ecosystem relationships to livestock dynamics and invasive species relative to rangeland condition is needed. The issue of the role that the diversity of both plant and animal components of rangeland ecosystems play in maintaining good rangeland condition needs to be evaluated. Studies of climate change and carbon dioxide changes on vegetation and animal dynamics need to be evaluated relative to the ecosystem level response to these changes. Evaluation of various management strategies for coping with climate change, such as altering the frequency and intensity of grazing, is needed to develop strategies that promote sustainable rangeland use.

The role of disturbance in modifying ecosystem and habitat characteristics needs to be evaluated in a more integrated context which includes scenarios of climate change as well as other human perturbations. The human-induced changes to natural systems related to extraction of coal, gas, and other mineral resources impact water, air and land resources and should be studied. The impact of these changes to ecosystems and how they may be reclaimed under a changing climate needs to be evaluated .

Changing climate patterns will cause changes in habitat extent and species mixtures for crops and livestock activities.

In summary, the list of issues identified by the stakeholder discussions include:

Social Issues:

Water Issues:

Supply: storage, infrastructure, control, wetlands preservation

The most contentious issue of all arose around the resolution between supply and demand and who has first rights to water in the region. How will climate change affect supply, and how will that altered supply be allocated within the region? It was felt that a regional approach would be needed to solve this problem as it could not be handled by the current system of state water boards. Regional water review boards were thus identified as a needed mechanism.

Demand: aquatic ecosystems needs versus agricultural demands/management

Quality: salinity, contamination

It was pointed out that the vast majority of water use was by agriculture; for example, 93.3 percent of consumptive water use in Colorado in 1985 was for agriculture.

How will climate change affect water supply, and how will that altered supply be allocated within the region?

Soil Issues:

Biological Issues:

Action is now needed to promote understanding of the relative importance of the possible effects of greenhouse gases on temperature and precipitation. Delineation of the relative significance and impacts of the respective mechanisms is needed. Land use change will affect greenhouse mechanisms and is thus important to controlling net greenhouse gas emissions from the Great Plains and the effect of these emissions at the global level. Based on the workshop outcome, plans for an assessment activity are being developed that will involve broader input from other stakeholder groups (such as those from the oil and gas extraction industry; natural gas extraction accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions in Kansas than do feedlots) and to further develop our understanding of possible coping strategies.

Information issues were also identified by workshop participants, such as how to better disseminate what we know about environmental change. A strong need was identified for effective, credible, relevant information. The transfer of this information was seen as critical. Greater education is needed, as are connections and cooperatives. The use of technology as well as including farmers as a resource were also stressed. Data needs include better weather forecasting and adaptive management strategies across all sectors. A dialogue must be developed between government agencies at all levels, the research community and stakeholders.

Land use change will affect greenhouse mechanisms and is thus important to controlling net greenhouse gas emissions from the Great Plains and the effect of these emissions at the global level.

The workshop proved the value of the stakeholder dimension to this process and reflects how this process is different from past climate change assessments. The evaluation of stakeholder involvement is summarized in the following points:

(1) It is very helpful and even necessary to get good representation of thoughtful stakeholders. Success at this depends on personal contact and developing networks of experts, local businesspeople, farmers, etc., who have mutual trust. It is important to then support these people.

(2) It is important for non-scientists to receive materials well before the workshop so they can participate more effectively and feel more comfortable. This information must be in a form that is accessible to them.

(3) Starting with presentations by experts can stifle participation of stakeholders, adding to their reluctance to speak up. Instead, the organizers began their workshop by asking stakeholders for their views first. Expert contributions came later.

(4) Keep the focus on what people in the region are concerned about; look for terms and organizing concepts that people can relate to and care about.

The workshop showed that it is possible to have a breakthrough, to overcome initial suspicions, and to have stakeholders leave with new information and ideas about their role in the national effort to deal with the climate change problem. The workshop also provided insight into what the stakeholders view as current vulnerabilities:

The sense of the discussions at the workshop was that transboundary issues are important and climate factors influencing the balance of resources and economic forces are important to the welfare of the region. These include issues of water distribution, export markets and competitors, and population migration (bringing growing ethnic diversity), to name a few. Also, the change from local ownership to large multinational ownership of businesses undermines the ability of the region to cope since important decisions are being made outside of the region. This region is important to the rest of the country because a great deal of the nation's food comes from the Great Plains. Economist Mark Drabenstott of the Federal Reserve Bank discussed this point in his talk about the economic factors affecting agronomic systems in the Great Plains at the workshop.

Transboundary issues are important and climate factors influencing the balance of resources and economic forces are important to the welfare of the region.
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