Pacific Northwest Regional Workshop on Climate Change Impacts
Edward Miles
Blair Henry
Caitlin Simpson
Pacific Northwest Regional Workshop on Climate Change Impacts
Edward Miles
Blair Henry
Caitlin Simpson
The Pacific Northwest regional workshop was a science-based workshop on the impacts of climate change. It involved individuals and organizations with operational responsibilities in the states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho. A unique feature of this effort was the establishment of the Northwest Council on Climate Change by Blair Henry. The council met in a Mexican restaurant every two weeks and this informal approach broadened the reach of the effort into a wider stakeholder community. The workshop participants included academics, representatives from various government entities at all levels, community representatives, and some limited participation from industry.
Ingredients of Success
There were six key ingredients in the success of this workshop:
(1) White house sponsorship and high level participation
(2) Adequate funding by co-sponsors: NOAA Office of Global Programs and NASA Mission to Planet Earth
(3) Close connections with a wide variety of stakeholders in the region for hydrology/water resources, forests, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities
(4) Organization of the Northwest Council of Climate Change by Blair Henry and the participation of elected and agency officials, the state of Washington, the cities of Seattle and Burien, the business community, and some media
(5) Substantial support from the steering committee drawn largely from the Northwest Council on Climate Change and supplemented by participants from Idaho and the U. S. Forest Service representative from Oregon
(6) Individual connections in Oregon and Idaho which helped identify additional potential participants
The Northwest Council on Climate Change met in a Mexican restaurant every two weeks and this informal approach broadened the reach of the effort into a wider stakeholder community.
The Climate Scenario
The workshop utilized the Max Plank Institute's coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (a conservative, middle-of-the-road model consistent with IPCC predictions) interpolated to the regional scale. This model was used to describe a plausible scenario (not a prediction) for climate change in the region; the group then assessed the probable impacts, given this scenario.
In general, the scenario is one of warmer, wetter winters and warmer, drier summers. It includes an annual average temperature increase of 1.1°C (2°F) by 2020 and 2.5°C (4.5°F) by 2050, more warming in winter than summer, and continued temperature increases beyond 2050, even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are stabilized by that time. The scenario assumes that average wintertime precipitation increases and average summertime precipitation decreases, though these changes are less certain than those in temperature. A sea level rise of 50 centimeters (20 inches) by 2100 is assumed (with a range of 20 to 86 cm), with interim rises of 7 cm (3 in.) by 2020 and 20 cm (8 in.) by 2050.
Other potential changes include a decrease in the daily temperature range, more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cold days, and an increase in precipitation intensity and extreme rainfall events. These are less certain than the projections of average changes in temperature and precipitation and may or may not apply specifically to the Pacific Northwest. Important unknowns involve storm frequency and intensity, changes in El Niño events, and potential surprises and nonlinearities in the climate system.
Vulnerabilities
Hydrology and Water Resources
The group then assessed vulnerabilities in each sector. For hydrology and water resources, there were mainly minus signs. The one positive feature appears to be for flood control in systems in which the peak flows occur in the Spring as a result of heavy snowmelt, i. e., the Columbia itself. They projected that less water will be available when needed, and that more will come as winter precipitation, leading to more deliberate spillage from reservoirs in controlled river systems due to lack of storage capacity. They anticipate lower summer flows, and increased failure to meet minimum streamflow requirements needed to protect fisheries. Increased competition among major water users and an increase in legal battles over water rights are also foreseen as hydropower producers, irrigators and those concerned about fisheries protection fight over shrinking supplies.
Increased competition among major water users is foreseen as hydropower producers, irrigators and those concerned about fisheries protection fight over shrinking supplies.
With respect to floods, they anticipate that flood susceptibility in the Columbia (i.e., interior Northwest) would decline somewhat because floods there tend to come mostly from Spring snowmelt and there will be less snow. On the western sides of the Cascades, however, most floods are fall-winter events with some component of rain -on-snow. This rain-on-snow component might well increase as a result of warmer temperatures. In that case, there would be the potential for snowmelt to occur from higher elevation areas which are not usually affected in the current climate. While western slope basins may experience more winter floods, the effects may be very different for different basins.
They anticipate a reduced ability to meet multi-use objectives in systems with a variety of constraints as well as reduced operating flexibility and ability to respond to interannual and intra-annual variability in flow in heavily constrained systems (such as the Snake, Yakima and Cedar Rivers). In addition, moderate elevation basins could experience radical shifts in total system storage and flow regime due to snow pack shifting to higher elevations. Suburban development potential and the ability to respond effectively to increasing urban and suburban water demand may be affected. Glacial melting may influence low-flow hydrology in some areas.
Forests and Rangelands
Increased drought stress is anticipated, which increases tree susceptibility to pest outbreaks and fires. Increasing risk of wildfires and fire intensity is expected, as is an increase in pest outbreaks as warmer temperatures expand pest ranges and accelerate pest life-cycles. Forest zones may shift up in elevation and northward, reducing the areal extent of productive forest land and making lower elevation, currently dry locations inhospitable to forests. A loss of biodiversity is expected, resulting from environmental shifts outpacing species migration rates, and a loss of habitat due to catastrophic disturbances and fragmentation. Ecological reserves, with their fixed boundaries, are especially vulnerable. Tree seedlings are especially sensitive to temperature increases and may not be able to establish and grow in the same place under altered climatic conditions. Forest ecosystems would consist of new combinations of species (a possible opportunity). Rangelands would experience increased invasion by exotic species, an increase in wildfires, and decreased forage quality.
A loss of biodiversity is expected, resulting from environmental shifts outpacing species migration rates, and a loss of habitat due to catastrophic disturbances and fragmentation.
Aquatic Ecosystems
Freshwater fisheries, especially in small rivers and lakes, are most vulnerable to climate change. Salmon migration and spawning would be harmed by decreased summer and fall runoff in west-side rivers. Fish habitat and egg-smolt survival may be harmed by increased wintertime river flows. It will become more difficult to provide adequate water flow for fish protection in the Columbia River Basin. A loss of wetland habitat is anticipated, as well as a loss of coastal habitat for outmigrating salmon, spawning oceanic species, animals, and sea birds. It is anticipated that the effect will be much like that of a continuous and positive El Niño event in which mackerel migrate north and eat young salmon, and seagulls and muirs flock to the mouth of the Columbia and devour fish released from hatcheries because there is not enough for them to eat off shore.
On the positive side, there may be stimulation of growth and expansion of ranges of warm-water species especially near current northern boundaries of species' ranges.
The Pacific Northwest Workshop group believes that effects of climate change on marine fisheries will most likely be felt via impacts to North Pacific atmospheric circulation (and consequent changes in ocean circulation patterns) rather than on any direct heating of the ocean.
Coastal Activities
Mostly negative consequences are expected in this arena, exacerbated by inappropriate land use. The Pacific Northwest Workshop group anticipates inundation of coastal areas, beaches, wetlands, and estuaries due to sea level rise, increased loss of wetlands between existing and future coastal development and rising seas, landward shoreline migration, increased erosion rates and events, loss of habitat for migratory birds, fish, shellfish and water fowl, and increased saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. Landslides and bluff failures could result due to increased wintertime precipitation and any increase in frequency and/or intensity of ocean storm events or changes in storm direction. Increased coastal flooding events are expected due to sea level rise, an altered hydrological/precipitation cycle, and any increase in future storminess. Different parts of the coast are vulnerable to different effects: erosion, flooding/inundation and physical oceanographic changes. Consequences that could be either positive or negative include altered productivity of coastal systems, changes in species distributions and abundances, and impacts on ecological processes and functions.
Agriculture and Grazing Lands
Agriculture shows the most positive results of any sector, though there are still more negatives than positives. On the negative side, decreased irrigation water supply coincident with increased water need in warmer, drier summers is expected, along with increased competition for water between agriculture, power production and fisheries. Other negative effects may be decreased grazing/rangeland productivity and shorter range season due to drier summers, decreased forage nutritive quality, increased agricultural and livestock pests, stimulated weed growth, increased crop heat stress and decreased yield stability, and decreased production from marginal dryland areas. Economics may force low-cost margin crops and farms from the system as demand for water increases and/or energy prices increase. Increased flooding and soil saturation in low-lying river valleys or coastal areas west of the Cascades could occur. And there may be social impacts on rural communities where agricultural production is disrupted.
Inundation of coastal areas, increased loss of wetlands, increased erosion rates and events, loss of animal habitat, and increased saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers are anticipated.
On the positive side, there may be an extended growing season due to increased temperature and improved crop growth and yields due to increased carbon dioxide. Productivity in the Pacific Northwest may increase (from more growing degree days and increased CO2) while productivity in other regions may decrease. There is a possibility of greater crop diversity. The enhanced-CO2 anti-transpirant effect (in which leaves' stomata remain more closed and so lose less water) may increase water efficiency in dryland areas. Winter wheat production may improve and there may be increased productivity in irrigated areas due to the possibility of double cropping or longer maturing crops.
Human Health
The least data are available on the subject of human health effects and so there is more uncertainty in the projections of impacts, though most appear to be negative. The possibility exists for increased photochemical smog production due to altered weather patterns (ozone production depends on incident sunlight, with sunnier days leading to more smog production, and atmospheric circulation patterns which concentrate or disperse pollutants and/or ozone precursors). Changes in the patterns of infectious diseases are anticipated, resulting from an expansion of pest ( e. g., ticks) ranges and/or acceleration of pest life-cycles. Diseases may migrate via human population migration. Increased water-borne health problems may result from contamination of drinking water by saltwater intrusion, leaks from underground hazardous material storage tanks or landfills with rising water tables in coastal areas, increased paralytic shellfish poisoning events (linked to warmer than average sea surface temperatures), and a possible increase in freshwater cyanobacteria in calm water expanses such as lakes and reservoirs. Mental health concerns stem from the possibility for profound social and economic distress in subsequent generations. Changes that could be either positive or negative include a possible decrease or increase in mortality due to changed incidence of high-risk air masses and potential changes in air-borne allergens that cause hay fever and asthma.
Energy
In the energy sector it is anticipated that there will be decreased capacity for hydroelectric power production in the Columbia River basin and that this will result in more frequent, longer lasting and larger failures of the power system to meet current levels of demand, and a decrease in the reliability of meeting energy production requirements. Competition for water resources would increase among hydropower production, irrigation supply, and fisheries protection and this will be exacerbated by demand increases due to population growth. The possibility for increased energy costs would impact industries such as aluminum production in the Pacific Northwest which depends on a cheap and dependable source of electricity. In addition, future national and international agreements may limit carbon dioxide emissions, impact the transportation, energy production and energy utilization sectors. On the positive side, there could be increased opportunities for development of alternative energy sources and associated technologies and an increased market for energy-efficiency technologies.
Changes in the patterns of infectious diseases are anticipated, resulting from an expansion of pest ranges and/or acceleration of pest life-cycles.
Urban Centers
Impacts foreseen for urban centers include decreased reliability of energy supplied by hydroelectric power production, flooding and landslides, environmental impacts on buildings and infrastructure, public health concerns stemming from increased air pollution and water-borne health problems, altered sewage treatment plant outfall hydraulics and drainage issues, especially in coastal areas, and increased uncertainty in planning for meeting future energy and water demand. There are also possible negative impacts to primarily resource-based economics (forests and fish) and a possibility for decline in "quality of life" factors including skiing and other recreation and tourism. On the positive side, there may be an opportunity for stimulating economic growth by attracting alternative energy and energy efficiency industries. Effects that could be either positive or negative include impacts to the economy of the Pacific Northwest versus economic impacts to other regions, and human population migration to the Pacific Northwest from other more stressed parts of the world.
It is anticipated that climate change will be manifested most directly through changes to the hydrologic cycle of the Pacific Northwest, and this cycle is the hub that unites all the sectors.
Interconnections
The above summary details potential climate change impacts to the various sectors, but it is important to recognize that none of these changes will occur in isolation. Impacts to one sector may trigger subsequent changes across other dimensions. It is anticipated that climate change will be manifested most directly through changes to the hydrologic cycle of the Pacific Northwest, and this cycle is the hub that unites all the sectors discussed above. Figure 2.12 demonstrates this interconnectedness and the complications added by secondary impacts.
Transboundary Issues
A number of important transboundary issues were identified:
Adaptation and Management Responses
(1) Since so many activities are water-dependent, improved watershed management would yield benefits across several sectors (reducing competition and conflict, increasing efficiencies, streamlining planning processes, increasing use of conservation and re-use technologies, managing forest density for water balance, choosing drought tolerant agricultural species, and reducing energy demand).
(2) Tapping new sources of water and/or increasing storage could involve increasing ground water withdrawal, recharging aquifers, and negotiating for use of increased Canadian storage.
(3) Adaptive management would incorporate climate change scenarios in future planning and use longer temporal and larger spatial scales in planning processes.
(4) Diversification to ensure future resiliency would include planting forest species with known broad physiological responses to climate parameters, increasing crop and crop systems' diversity and resiliency, connecting water supply systems with different characteristics to increase robustness and flexibility of water resources systems, and practicing precautionary fisheries management.
(5) Increasing within-sector cooperation and sharing would include developing a database of incidences of climate-related diseases and mapping the ecological ranges of disease reservoirs and vectors, and sharing results of global monitoring of trends in forest conditions and climate-related forest stress.
(6) Develop new technologies, particularly alternative energy systems.
(7) Improve methods of conflict resolution across sectors, especially regarding property rights.
(8) In coastal zones where sea level rise is of concern, choose among adjustment, protection, retreat, and abandonment, making these choices relevant to the context.
Major Implication: Increased competition and conflict over access to water supply.
Comon Characteristics: Increased vulnerability as function of magnitude and rate of change and extent of pre-existing stress.
This diagram illustrates how a variety of impacts flow from
changes in hydrology and water resources.
Research Needs
(1) The primary objective of research should be a more detailed and effective linkage of global and regional climate dynamics in order to better understand how changes at the global level might or might not be reflected at the regional level.
(2) Whatever the dynamics of the linked global/regional climate system, research should focus on how patterns of regional climate change would impact ecosystems and human activities in the eight sectors.
(3) It should also focus on how the sectors are interconnected to better describe how changes in hydrology/water resources would have ripple effects across the other sectors.
In planning for a regional science assessment the organizers felt that the scope of this initial group should be expanded to include the four missing sectors and that a collaborative, inter-university research program should be created for the region. They further feel that the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) should link U. S. regional assessments to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5-year assessments but with a 1-year lag. In the future, they felt that the region should be defined in an ecological, rather than a political sense, to facilitate a watershed approach (i. e., the entire Columbia and Puget Sound Basins).
In the future, the region should be defined in an ecological, rather than a political sense, to facilitate a watershed approach.
In conclusion, the organizers point out that it was important to this workshop's success that they did not get into the question of blame and they did not debate whether climate change is already happening. The group simply agreed on a statement that climate change is a significant problem that requires attention. Substantive discussion and elucidation of the impact pathways through which climate changes will be felt in the region was made possible by the adoption of a specific and realistic scenario for future climate change.
They did not get into the question of blame and they did not debate whether climate change is already happening. The group simply agreed on a statement that climate change is a significant problem that requires attention.
Rising sea levels are anticipated to have negative consequences in the coastal zone (photo by Gunter Weller).