Decisions, Products and Proposals from the AGCI Meeting on Preparing for a U. S. National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

The national assessment consists of three primary components:

• regional assessment processes (18 at present)
• sectoral assessment processes (10 considered in Aspen, now 5)
• a synthesis process

Baseline and scenario documents will provide input into these processes, as needed. A strengthened research program, as well as outreach mechanisms will also be of critical importance to the process.

Philosophically, the assessment will emphasize a new paradigm, with a focus on process that comes from the bottom up. It will also aim for scientific excellence, openness, full participation, transparency, relevance to decision making, and adequate communication mechanisms.

Objectives of the National Assessment Process

Designed to be transparent and participatory, the national global change assessment process will be pursued through a set of regionally-organized research, communication and education activities combined with a parallel and complimentary set of sectoral research, analysis and communication activities, and a synthesis of the results of these regional activities in the context of an integrated look at the implications of global change at a national level, aiming to:

• develop a more complete understanding by the scientific community, government, private industry, and the public of the local, regional, national, and international implications of global change in the context of other existing and potential environmental, economic and social stresses and opportunities;
• establish and maintain a continuing, interactive dialogue among interested groups and individuals engaged in exploring the challenges and opportunities associated with global change.

With an initial focus on climate variability and change, the national global change assessment process will address the following objectives:

Information for Decision Making

The aim is to develop a more complete understanding of global change in the context of other existing and potential environmental, economic and social stresses and opportunities.

• gather or produce useful information for coping with the consequences of global change;
• identify relevant decision making frameworks and key information needs and explore the challenges and opportunities associated with the integration of information on climate variability and change;
• take advantage of existing and emerging scientific insights and technological capabilities for sustainability (economic, social and environmental);
• work with existing institutions and organizations to support iterative, integrated decision making at and across local, regional and national levels;
• periodically produce and disseminate reports on the current state of knowledge of global change and its implications to support decision making.

Research to Support the Generation of Useful Information

• catalyze the production of scientifically rigorous assessments of the impacts and consequences of global change at the local, regional and national levels;
• identify affected communities, sectors, and ecosystems and clarify their vulnerability to climate variability and change, where vulnerability is defined as sensitivity to variability and change as well as some measure of the ability of those systems to adapt;
• support the exploration, understanding and rigorous evaluation of adaptation and other coping strategies (including voluntary actions) to reduce the vulnerability of affected communities and sectors and take advantage of opportunities;
• establish and enhance interactions among diverse research communities to generate ideas and develop research priorities which encourage cross-disciplinary collaboration and scientific partnerships designed to support practical applications .

Public Understanding and Education

• communicate the results of current and evolving global change research through partnerships with existing formal and informal educational organizations, institutions and programs;
• increase public understanding of the implications of global change research;
• educate the scientific community on the needs, questions and concerns of affected communities and sectors at the local, regional, national, and international levels.

Jerry Melillo addresses the Aspen public and AGCI participants (photo by Paul Grabhorn).

Principles of the National Assessment

(1) Scientific excellence

(2) Relevance to societal decision-making

(3) Participatory stakeholder involvement

(4) Publicly credible process (objective, transparent)

(5) Efficient use of taxpayer resources

(6) All components contributing to the whole effort

Baseline Scenarios and Scoping Papers

A set of proposed products will be created as inputs into the assessment process. They are meant to develop and provide some common assumptions for the sectoral and regional assessments.

Time frame: current conditions to 2050

Domain: nationally consistent, regionally relevant

Completion of review draft: Spring 1998

Objective: to develop common assumptions to assist the sectoral and regional teams as needed

(1) Socio-economic projections

• demographic scenarios (including population growth, immigration, demographic shifts, per capita resource use estimates, etc.)
• economic projections (including Gross Domestic Product growth rate for next 50 years)

(2) Resource use: key assumptions

• Water use
• Land use changes (urbanization, etc.)
• Ecosystem trends

(3) Technology: key assumptions

• Energy
• Bioenergetics
• Transportation

(4) Climate

• Historical trends (observed, reconstructed)
• GCM-based scenarios (adjusted to finer regional resolution through the use of nested models or other techniques)
• Meteorological regimes

Steps in the Regional Assessment Process

The goal of the national global change assessment process is to improve understanding by the public, business, government, and scientific communities of the local, regional, national, and, where relevant, international implications of global change in the context of other current and potential future environmental, economic, and social stresses and opportunities.

Identify win-win coping strategies that will help address the stresses created by climate variability and climate change as well as by non-climate stresses.

The process will facilitate the communication of evaluated information to the public and private sectors, the conduct of research to develop new understanding, and the translation of new understanding into usable knowledge for stakeholders.

The assessment process will include several key elements, including:

• building an ongoing dialogue between stakeholders and the research community
• periodic reporting of results from the assessment activities, and
• identifying potential options that could be pursued and new information needed to build resilience and expand the set of options.

The regional component of the national assessment process will involve the following activities:

• Identification of critical issues and stakeholders;
• Preparation and assembly of white papers and other background materials as a resource for the region;
• Convening a scoping workshop;
• Preparing a summary workshop report covering four topics:

  (1) Identify current stresses affecting the region, its natural resources and economic sectors.

  (2) Consider how climate variability and change might either amplify or dampen these stresses or create new ones (including possible surprises).

  (3) Identify new information that would allow people and organizations to think better about the linkage between current stresses and climate variability and climate change.

  (4) Identify win-win coping strategies that will help address the stresses created by climate variability and climate change as well as by non-climate stresses.

• Regional Assessment Report: During 1997-98, refine and expand the summary workshop report, possibly including analyses using scenarios, additional research, etc., and then publishing a first Regional Assessment Report. Broad review and refinement of the report will continue into 1999.
• National Assessment Workshop: The goal of the November 1997 workshop will be to finalize the design of the national assessment process and establish a stakeholder dialogue at the national level to complement and promote the dialogue being established at the regional levels. This workshop is a step in the assessment process; it is understood that not all of the regional workshops will be held before this workshop and so continuing evolution of regional involvement will occur.
• The National Assessment will include Regional Assessment Reports from all regions (currently 18), Sectoral Reports (estimated to be 5), Synthesis Reports on broad societal and climatic trends (estimated to be 5 or so), and an executive summary that will provide an integrated presentation of the consequences of climate variability and change for the United States and its regions and sectors.
• Iterations: The assessment will be an ongoing process among all the stakeholder communities and will include public outreach and education activities, research and translation of research results for use by policymakers, and a continuing exploration of coping strategies. New reports will be issued periodically to document increased understanding.
• Sustaining the Dialogue: An infrastructure will be established that will provide for a two-way information interchange that will enhance the ability of stakeholder groups to take informed actions and research communities to develop more usable information.

Steps for Each Assessment to Follow

The first step will include identification of key stakeholder groups, critical concerns within the region, description of climate factors affecting the stakeholder groups, information needs, coping strategies, and research issues.

Regional and sectoral assessments can rely on a mixture of nationally-derived scenarios of trends in climate (current trends and projections) and other critical scenarios and the use of regionally-specific scenarios defined by regional stakeholders.

The process of conducting the analysis of climate change impacts will build from the information gathered at the regional scoping workshops. Three steps are envisioned:

• The first step will include identification of key stakeholder groups, critical concerns within the region, description of climate factors affecting the stakeholder groups, information needs, coping strategies, and research issues.
• The second step will involve a sensitivity analysis of the major points emerging from the step one. After refining initial findings with the help of modeling and analysis relative to national sectoral efforts, the teams will evaluate first order effects, and also indirect or second and third order effects and cross-sectoral impacts. The extent of new computational analysis will vary among the regions depending on the availability of resources within the region. All analyses should be "translated" for accessibility to all stakeholders.
• The third step will involve linkage of regional perspectives with scenarios. Scenario identification should be nationally consistent and regionally relevant. The timeframe of analysis is current conditions to 2050. Baseline scenarios will be provided and future scenarios will be developed and applied for parameter themes including socioeconomic, resource use, technology, and climate.

Oversight and Working Bodies in the National Assessment Process

The National Assessment Leadership Team (NALT)

Mission

The NALT's mission is to facilitate, coordinate, guide, and sustain a scientifically and technologically rigorous assessment of the impacts and consequences of climate change and variability and to assure that the products are useful.

The NALT's mission is to facilitate, coordinate, guide, and sustain a scientifically and technologically rigorous assessment of the impacts and consequences of climate change and variability at the regional, sectoral and national levels; and to assure that the knowledge, insights and products obtained from the assessment are useful and essential inputs to addressing the consequences of and coping strategies for dealing with climate change and variability.

Goals/Objectives

• ensure scientific and technical rigor of assessments at all levels
• provide intellectual leadership for the assessment process
• enhance the quality and effectiveness of regional assessment efforts
• develop and implement an open process for peer review
• ensure technical and logistical support for maintaining regional efforts
• determine most effective approach for providing a national assessment
• facilitate production of an initial national assessment and the process to produce it
• identify research, outreach, education and communication agendas
• oversee production of updates as new understanding emerges
• work with the stakeholder and user community to communicate and foster understanding and recognition of the assessment process and results (including work with resource managers and others to ensure implementation of results)
• convene and empower the sectoral and synthesis teams
• ensure coordination among regional, sectoral and synthesis efforts and transfer of knowledge between them
• implement an independent evaluation and ongoing refinement of the process
• organize periodic national fora

Membership

• The NALT will be comprised of 12 members having interests and experience in the preparation of policy-relevant assessments and having a range of regional, sectoral and disciplinary backgrounds.
• They will serve for three years in staggered terms.
• The National Assessment Coordination Office (NACO) Director (appointed by the chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research) is an ex-officio member and serves as the Executive secretary for the NALT.
• The NALT chair will be nominated by interested stakeholder groups. Selection will be made by the Oversight Committee in consultation with the Director of the NACO and the national assessment working group.
• Members of the NALT will be nominated by interested stakeholder groups in the regions, federal government, etc., and will be selected by the NALT chair in consultation with the Director of the NACO and the national assessment working group.

Support

Financial and logistical support will be provided by the NACO (about 3 staff people). Program staff from the various agencies of the U. S. Global Change Research Program form the National Assessment Working Group. The Oversight Committee, comprised of public and private sector representatives, will ensure the intellectual quality and integrity of the process.

Regional Network Coordination Offices

The proposed regional network coordination "office" would serve as the focal point for implementation of the regional research, assessment, communication and education components of the national assessment process. In this context, "office" is used to represent a set of functions and activities which can be undertaken through either a centralized or distributed approach but some full-time, dedicated staff will be required. The working group suggests the following general considerations in establishing these regional capabilities:

Be flexible and innovative. Look for opportunities to engage a number of regional partners.

• Be flexible and innovative.
• Look for opportunities to engage a number of regional partners in undertaking the identified functions (shared versus single-institution ownership, "host" versus "owner").
• Pursue multi sponsorship and cost-sharing from the outset.
• Wherever possible and appropriate, take advantage of existing capabilities, organizations and institutions.
• Recognize the need for this "office" to coordinate activities and communicate within the region, among regions, and with the national level.

In this last context, the working group recommends that the national assessment working group consider the establishment of a task force (or some other mechanism) to facilitate communication with and support for the regional network. In this context, the working group identified the following critical functions and activities for the network coordination "office:"

• Providing a two-way bridge between the global change research community and interested individuals and organizations in the region (including the public): assisting in the identification of current and potential opportunities to take advantage of existing and emerging scientific insights and technological capabilities including assisting in the transformation (interpretation) of research results into usable information which can be applied to practical problems .
• Translation, communication, education and outreach: activities related to increasing public understanding of the implications of global change, identifying and engaging new stakeholders, supporting formal and informal education programs (training and materials development, etc.)
• Building and sustaining the network of scientists and interested individuals and organizations within the region, including the proactive engagement of initial and new stakeholders, and sustaining an iterative dialogue within the region.

As part of the above activities, they should:

• seek and ensure full involvement (scientists, stakeholders, public and private sectors)
• establish key partnerships
• leverage existing capabilities
• secure required resources (money, people, institutions)
• hold post-workshop meetings, roundtables, etc.
• contribute to intra-region communications (world wide web, newsletters, etc.)
• coordinate regional responses to requests for proposals and other opportunities
• serve as a focal point for communication of regional insights, research results and information needs among the regions and to the national level
• serve as an information clearinghouse, facilitating access to publicly-available regional and national data sets and research results, and making data purchases where necessary to address critical regional needs
• coordinate development of periodic reports on regional implications of global change and regional contributions to periodic national assessment reports
• serve as a regional research incubator by stimulating a bottom-up development of research ideas to address regional needs and facilitating support for priority projects; consider providing seed money for critical projects in some regions
  • Provide a two-way bridge between the global change research community and interested individuals and organizations in the region.