News
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1 December 2009
Advancements in Decadal Prediction
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As infrastructure planners and resource managers become more aware of the looming impacts of climate change, increased attention has focused on "decadal prediction"--climate modeling that can forecast climate for the next 10-30 years. Three key variables that operate at the decadal scale are the climate commitment from existing GHG emissions, external forcing from new GHG emissions, and the climate system's internal variability. In the summer of 2008, a group of climate modelers from Japan, England, Australia, Germany, and France along with modelers from the U.S. came together at the Aspen Global Change Institute to explore modeling skill at the decadal timescale and to develop an experimental framework for decadal prediction. The framework developed at this meeting will contribute to the experimental design for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5), which will eventually support the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Participants at the meeting recently published the framework developed at the Aspen meeting in the October issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society. In addition, numerous technical presentations and slideshows on the topic of decadal prediction are available on our website.
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 BAMS Article on Decadal Prediction
 AGCI Presentations on Decadal Prediction
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5 November 2009
Congress Investigates Implications of Geoengineering
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Over the past year, there has been much discussion about geoengineering-the technological concept that could enable humans to offset the effects of global warming. The origin of the concept goes back decades, but as concerns about global warming rise, geoengineering is receiving heightened attention, as well as controversy. On November 5, the U.S. House Committee on Science and Technology convened a hearing to address specifically the topic of geoengineering. AGCI board member, Ken Caldeira, testified before the committee.
Geoengineering was also the focus of an AGCI meeting more than a decade ago entitled, Innovative Energy Systems and CO2 Stabilization. At the meeting, Gregory Benford delivered a public lecture about the challenges and opportunities associated with geoengineering. Another informative presentation about geoengineering by Grainger Morgan, a past participant in AGCI workshops, was given at a Council on Foreign Relations workshop in 2008.
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Ken Caldeira's Testimony to House Committee
Science & Technology Committee Hearing on Geoengineering
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27 October 2009
Climate Services in the National, Global Forecast
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Over the past year, there has been growing interest worldwide in the development of climate services. Climate services is a new concept that would streamline communication between climate scientists and decision makers. It would provide accessible scientific knowledge for informing adaptation and long-term planning policy in response to climate change.
Climate services was the topic of two recent meetings: the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, Switzerland and AGCI's
2009 Climate Services workshop in Aspen, CO. At the Aspen meeting, leading climate scientists and water resource managers from around the country met to share ideas about what could eventually become a national climate service.
An informative overview of developments in climate services was recently posted on the RealClimate blog.
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25 June 2009
In Science: Nutrient Imbalances in Agricultural Development
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In 2008, AGCI convened a small working group of scientists to discuss anthropogenic changes in the cycles of nitrogen and phosphorous, and identify the information needed for society to effectively respond to these changes. An article summarizing the findings of this group was published in the 19 June 2009 edition of Science. The authors outline how nutrient additions to intensive agricultural systems range from inadequate to excessive -- and how both extremes have substantial human and environmental costs. Regional case-studies are presented for three contrasting agricultural systems: Northern China, sub-Saharan Africa, and the mid-western United States.
The New York Times' Andy Revkin reports on the Science article in his Dot Earth blog. Scientific American and Science Daily also reported on the paper.
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Science: Nutrient Imbalances in Agricultural Development
New York Times Dot Earth blog: Fertilizer Divide: Too Much, Not Enough
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1 May 2009
The Role of Northern Eurasia and its role in the climate system addressed in BAMS publication
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Little is known about the biogeochemical, energy, and water cycles of the Northern Eurasian landmass, a carbon-rich region capable of significantly influencing global climate. In response to this deficiency, AGCI hosted a Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) workshop to better understand and quantify biophysical feedbacks between Northern Eurasia and the global climate. A product of this workshop, this BAMS article summarizes the first group of NEESPI projects, which have mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying the individual environmental processes.
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BAMS article: The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership
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27 April 2009
AGCI Publishes Article in Switzerland's Mountain Research Initiative Newsletter
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In April 2009, AGCI contributed an article to the second edition of MRI News, a publication of the Mountain Research Initiative (Switzerland) which journals global change science from mountain regions around the world. The article, titled, "Colorado's Roaring Fork River: Incorporating Climate Change Projections into Watershed Management," summarizes the efforts taken in 2008 to incorporate climate change considerations into the Roaring Fork Watershed planning process, and outlines a strategy for implementing recommended next steps.
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MRI News article: Colorado's Roaring Fork River
Mountain Research Initiative website
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4 December 2008
State of the Roaring Fork Watershed Report Incorporates Chapter on Climate Change
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In an effort to incorporate climate change projections into the watershed planning process, AGCI contributed a chapter (chapter 3.5) to the 2008 State of the Roaring Fork Watershed Report, which represents a first step towards developing a comprehensive Watershed Plan for the region. The chapter attempted to 1) summarize climate observations and projections for the region, 2) assess the potential impacts of climate change on runoff and water-dependent ecosystems within the watershed, as well as impacts to local socioeconomics and regional water demand, and 3) identify data gaps and insufficiencies in the current water planning process, and recommend action steps to be taken in order to prepare effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the watershed's vulnerability to climate change. The project was sponsored by the Reudi Water & Power Authority and managed by the Roaring Fork Conservancy.
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Climate Change & the Roaring Fork Watershed (Chapter 3.5)
Executive Summary of the 2008 State of the Watershed Report
The Roaring Fork Watershed plan website and complete report
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13 November 2007
Eos Report: "Northern Eurasia in the Global Earth System"
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A summary of the Aspen Global Change Institute's 2007 summer science session "Northern Eurasia Land Surface Properties and Change and Its Role in the Global Earthy System" was published in the November 2007 edition of Eos. The synopsis emphasizes Northern Eurasia's global importance and stresses the need for comparing models across multiple high latitude regions. The supplementary material highlights the current status, points to the major deficiencies in the data and knowledge, and suggests the future objectives for research in the high-latitude region.
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Eos Article
Supplementary material
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3 June 2007
World Climate Research Programme Publishes White Paper based on AGCI's 2006 Earth System Modeling Workshop
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The conclusions of Aspen Global Change Institute's 2006 summer science session "Earth System Models: The Next Generation" were published in the May 2007 edition of the World Climate Research Programme Summary Report. The synopsis brings to light what models, scenarios and strategies researchers now must consider next in order to best track emissions on both the short- and long-term scales in light of current and future techniques.
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Report: A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments with AOGCMs and ESMs
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9 May 2007
EPA Recognizes the Aspen Climate Impacts Assessment with Highest Regional Award to the City of Aspen
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In May 2007, the Environmental Protection Agency awarded the Aspen Global Change Institute in conjunction with the City of Aspen the agency's Environmental Achievement Award - the EPA's highest regional honor. The award recognizes AGCI's and the City of Aspen's work in commissioning the "Aspen Climate Impacts Assessment" report for its use as a tool in motivating action on global warming.
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Press release
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26 July 2006
AGCI Releases Aspen Climate Impacts Assessment
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As part of the Canary Initiative, AGCI contracted with the City of Aspen in May 2005 to author a study to determine the likely consequences of global warming on the City of Aspen. The report focuses on climatological, snowpack, ecological, socioeconomic and streamflow-related impacts to the Roaring Fork Valley.
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Press release
Full report
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