6-11 July 2003: Energy Options and Paths to Climate Stabilization On this page: Session Description Participant Roster Or go to: Talk titles with PPT Slides of Select Powerpoint Presentations View Dr. Richard Smalley's Powerpoint slides as html: "Our Energy Challenge" Session Description Co-chairs Dr. Ken Caldeira, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Dr. Martin I. Hoffert, New York University Overview: This interdisciplinary session of the Aspen Global Change Institute will focus on long –term energy technologies and associated pathways that can contribute to the stabilization of radiative forcing resulting from human activity. The session will be organized around three themes with an emphasis on technologies and the quantitative contributions they each can make in significantly altering the last two terms of the Kaya Identity – where carbon dioxide emissions are expressed as the product of population, per capita gross domestic product, primary energy intensity, and carbon intensity. Theme I: Closing the Loop on Carbon & Other GHGs Theme II: Increasing Reliance on Efficiency, Renewables, Nuclear, and Bio Energy Theme III: Beyond the Standard Suite The meeting will have approximately 45 to 55 participants, all contributing to daily discussions and the week-long work of the working groups and their findings. 24 invitees will be asked to prepare presentations on topics within the 3 themes with an equal number of invited respondents offering prepared rebuttals or supplementary information. Quantitative analysis of specific technologies and energy systems designs will be presented that will include nuclear fission & fusion, space and terrestrial based renewables, bio-energy, carbon management/fossil energy, and efficiency. Related topics will also be discussed including energy carriers/storage, conversion technologies, and other greenhouse gases. Quantities will be expressed in common currencies such as TW saved or produced (terrawatt = 10^12 W), or GtC-equivalent emissions avoided, so as to enhance comparison of potential paths and their contribution at the global scale. A technical proceedings will include a chart with the areal energy density, total resource available, maximum penetration possible by 2050, 2100, key technical hurdles, and environmental/societal issues associated with each technology pathway. Attempts will be made to identify technologies and approaches that can be deployed on the massive scale needed to support robust economic growth while stabilizing radiative forcing. For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled –Richard P. Feynman Background One of the greatest challenges of the 21st century is to find environmentally acceptable ways of promoting sustainable economic growth and development, both in industrialized and developing countries. From an energy perspective, this means finding ways to improve the economic utility of the energy we consume and finding ways to produce energy that will greatly reduce the risk of adverse environmental consequences. Our present development trajectory risks generating severe global climate change, a wave of extinctions leading to reduced biodiversity, and other serious environmental problems. Many of these potential problems are of concern primarily on the timescale of decades to centuries and involve protection of a global commons. In contrast, market forces respond most strongly to short-term private interests. Hence, there is a role for government investment in developing and improving ways of producing and using power that can be commercialized and brought to market by the private sector. If we are successful, this investment can lead to an era of sustained economic growth and development that is cognizant of and consistent with our finite world. There is a need to identify promising technologies that can facilitate sustained environmentally acceptable economic growth. Even among experts, there is no consensus regarding which technologies and approaches are most promising. Each technology or approach has its own set of barriers to widespread adoption. These barriers may include technological hurdles, physical limitations, economic, social or political factors, national security concerns, and so on. We will consider these limitations and barriers, and assess candidate technologies for their ability to contribute to the development of a vigorous and just global economy operating in a healthy global environment. Furthermore, the session will be designed to identify critical research and development issues including a rationale for the sequencing of technology development, demonstration and deployment that must be addressed to assess or facilitate the viability of these options. Human civilization has reached the point where we no longer play a minor role in the natural cycles that govern our planet. We must move beyond thinking in terms of trade-offs between our economy and the natural world — there is one physical world encompassing both of these things, impinging on us at every instant. We have the opportunity to try to make this physical world as good as it can be for the long haul — this is our opportunity and our challenge. It is our good fortune to be able to address these most important problems at this turning point in the history of human civilization, and our responsibility to find solutions that work. Rationale The goal of the meeting is to identify promising energy technologies and strategies that can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, physical limitations and barriers to development for each technology, and most important next steps – a sequencing of research and development initiatives – that would help lead each technology towards testing in the marketplace. The meeting will address these issues primarily from a physical sciences and engineering perspective. However, we recognize that engineering solutions are tools for society, and thus must be consistent with a plausible development path that take into consideration economic, social, political, and national security concerns. Furthermore, whereas the meeting will involve primarily the discussion of technologies and focus on addressing global climate change, these discussions must include the participation of environmental scientists who may be able to foresee some of the as-yet unanticipated consequences of widespread adoption of a new energy strategy. The meeting would have as its product a written document identifying promising energy technologies and strategies, and the sequencing of critical next steps in research and development. Participants This meeting will include a diverse range of intelligent and creative participants; primarily physical scientists and engineers, along with a several economists, representatives from NGOs, policy analysts, etc. and will include several international invitees. Creative experts with divergent opinions will be sought out on the following topics (some invitees will have expertise in more than one area; some areas will have more than one expert). Categories involving physical scientists and engineers will be most heavily populated. Design comments: Each presentation of approximately 30 minutes will have 1 or 2 pre-selected respondents allowed 5 to 10 minutes for rebuttal. Since some speakers will respond to other presentations, a meeting size of 45 to 54 is anticipated. In addition there will be ample group discussion interspersed throughout each work day. All participants will have the opportunity to contribute to the working group work and reports or contribute to the poster session. As a running theme, a large “energy/technology matrix” will be posted with rows listing technologies, and columns for energy density, total resource available, maximum penetration possible by 2050 & 2100, key technical hurdles, etc. Rectangles in this matrix will be large enough to include multiple answers. Throughout the meeting, participation in the matrix will be solicited whereby experts post their ideas. The matrix will serve the “putting it all together” talks on the last morning and provide useful input into the post-session synthesis process and final report. In addition to the energy/technology matrix developed over the course of the meeting, there will opportunities for poster presentations. Session Report: The report will consist of a session overview and key findings by the session chairs, the set of invited presentations and responses summarized with synthesis in the six working groups, and the energy/technology matrix chart, and a set of research and development recommendations. One copy will be provided each participant with the remainder for use by the supporting agencies. Additional hardcopies will be printed via a print-on-demand service and available for cost directly from AGCI or its assigned distributor. Pdf files of the entire publication or selected parts will be posted on the internet and freely available for downloading. Participant Roster Roger Anderson Doherty Senior Scholar Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Expertise: Energy supply, demand: electric grid, natural gas, oil David Archer Professor, University of Chicago Expertise: Ocean carbon cycle Gregory Benford Professor of Physics University of California Irvine Expertise: Carbon sequestration Gene Berry Energy Technology and Security Program Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Hydrogen energetics and economic analysis Ken Caldeira Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling Group Energy and Environment Directorate Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Carbon cycle, models Alfred Cavallo Environmental Measurements Laboratory Dept. of Homeland Security Expertise: Wind energy, energy storage, petroleum resources and economics, risk assessment Cheng-kong Chou Associate Director, Energy and Environment Directorate Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Nuclear energy John F. Clarke Chief Technologist Joint Global Change Research Institute Expertise: Energy technology development management, modeling and analysis Leon Clarke Decisions/Systems Analyst Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Energy technology economics and policy Patrick Collins Economic Environment Research Laboratory, Environmental Policy Department Azabu University Expertise: Economics of energy supply from space David R. Criswell Director, Institute of Space Systems Operations (ISSO) University of Houston Expertise: Space and lunar solar power, lunar industrialization, power needs for sustainable global prosperity Carmen Difiglio Head of Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency Expertise: Energy technology policy Jae Edmonds Chief Scientist, Fundamental Sciences Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland Expertise: Energy-economy-technology interactions Chris Edwards Global Climate and Energy Project Stanford University Dept. of Mechanical Engineering Expertise: Combustion engines S. Julio Friedmann Research Scientist, Department of Geology University of Maryland Expertise: Geological carbon storage and sequestration Chris Green Professor, Department of Economics McGill University Expertise: Economics of climate change, energy Howard Gruenspecht Energy Information Administration Expertise: Electricity policy, economy-wide energy modeling David Halpern Office of Science and Technology Policy Expertise: Seasonal-to-decadal climate variability, climate change science program Bryan Hannegan Associate Director for Energy and Transportation Council on Environmental Quality Executive Office of the President Expertise: Atmospheric chemistry, climate change, energy policy, technology R&D Danny Harvey Professor, Department of Geography University of Toronto Expertise: Efficiency and renewables David Hawkins Climate Center Director Natural Resources Defense Council Expertise: Coal sequestration Howard Hayden Prof. Emeritus of Physics UConn The Energy Advocate Expertise: Solar energy applications Eric Hoffert CEO Versatility Energy Inc. Expertise: Space solar power, wireless power transmission, hybrid power transmission, information technology for energy and power applications Martin I. Hoffert Professor of Physics Andre & Bella Meyer Hall of Physics New York University Expertise: Climate change, alternative energy technologies Kenneth K. Humphreys Battelle, Pacific Northwest National Lab Expertise: Energy systems Muriel Ishikawa Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Applied physics Atul K. Jain Professor, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Expertise: Integrated assessment, global climate and carbon cycle Andrew Kaldor Manager, Research and Development ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Co. Expertise: Breakthrough research Haroon Kheshg iExxonMobil Research & Engineering Co. Expertise: Climate science, biofuels, carbon sequestration, chemical engineering Thomas G. Kreutz Senior Technical Staff Member Princeton Environmental Institute Expertise: Hydrogen and energy technology H. Douglas Lightfoot Mechanical Engineer McGill Centre for Climate and Global Change Research Expertise: Energy Cesare Marchetti Institute Scholar International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Expertise: Systems analysis Gregg Marland Staff Scientist Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Expertise: Carbon sequestration in terrestrial biosphere, biofuels, CO2 emissions Robert Marlay Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy Deputy Director, Climate Change Technology Program Office of Policy and International Affairs US Department of Energy Expertise: Energy policy, energy technology Michael Mauel Professor: Dept. of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University Expertise: Plasma physics and fusion energy F. Blaine Metting Biological & Enviromental Sciences Program Manager; Fundamental Sciences Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Expertise: Microbial biotechnology David Montgomery Vice President Charles River Associates, Inc. Expertise: Economics, cost mitigation strategies, international trade, emission trading Nebojsa Nakicenovic Professor of Energy Economics, Vienna University of Technology Transitions to New Technologies Project, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Expertise: Energy scenarios Takashi Ohsumi CO2 Sequestration Research Group Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) Expertise: Geochemistry William O’Keefe President The George C. Marshall Institute Expertise: Public policy and strategic planning Franklin M. Orr, Jr. Director Global Climate and Energy Project, Stanford University Expertise: High-pressure equilibrium of CO2-hydrocarbon systems, fluid flow in porous media, oil recovery by gas injection, CO2 sequestration in subsurface geologic systems and in the oceans John Perkins Physicist, X-Division Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Nuclear fusion and fission Cedric Philibert Energy and Environment Division International Energy Agency Expertise: Emissions trading, solar power Greg H. Rau Senior Researcher Institute of Marine Sciences University of California Expertise: Carbon cycle,/ sequestration William C. Sailor Technical Staff Member Nonproliferation and International Security Los Alamos National Laboratory Expertise: Nuclear energy and non-proliferation John Schmidt Head of Advanced Projects Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory Erich Schneider Technical Staff Member Los Alamos National Laboratory Expertise: Nuclear systems engineering Stephen Schneider Professor, Dept. of Biological Sciences Stanford University Expertise: Climate, geoengineering, uncertainty David Shepard President Sky WindPower Corporation Expertise: High altitude wind power Dale Simbeck SFA Pacific, Inc. Expertise: Near-term emissions reductions Richard Smalley University Professor Carbon Nanotechnology Project Rice University Expertise: Chemistry, physics, nanotechnology Vaclav Smil Professor, Faculty of Environment University of Manitoba Expertise: Energy and the environment James Ray Smith Energy & Environment Directorate Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Fossil combustion, applied energy technologies Dwain Spencer President, SIMTECHE Expertise: Advanced coal power systems, coal conversion processes, CO2 separation and control processes Tyler Volk Associate Professor, Department of Biology New York University Expertise: Global carbon cycle, biosphere science, renewable energy Harlan L. Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs U.S. Department of State Expertise: Climate change policy Robert G. Watts Cornelia and Arthur Jung Chair Mechanical Engineering Dept. Tulane University Expertise: Thermal science Paul Werbos CNCI Program Director Electrical and Communications Systems National Science Foundation Expertise: Cross disciplinary-engineering, energy economics, intelligent systems John P. Weyant Professor Dept. of Management Science and Engineering Stanford University Expertise: Energy modeling, integrated assessment, and technology assessment Tom M. L. Wigley National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Expertise: Climate Lowell Wood Physicist, University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Expertise: Applied physics